Cliff Smith wrote:

It has often been suggested that if extraterrestrials ever did make a
well-publicised arrival on Earth, the public reaction would be a mass panic
resulting in total anarchy and thousands of deaths. Conspiracy theorists
claim that this is one the reasons that the government keeps the supposed
"alien presence" top secret. The case usually quoted as an example is the
famous 1938 Orson Wells broadcast of War of the Worlds, which supposedly
caused a million people to take to the streets in fear and panic.
However, it seems that reports of the 1938 panic were, to put it mildly,
somewhat exaggerated. Recent studies have found that the initial reports of
rioting crowds were mostly created by the mass media, and that in fact only
a handful of people in a couple of neighbourhoods actually took any action
at all. Subsequent broadcasts of the play caused disturbances in a couple of
South American countries in the 1940s, but at least one of those was a crowd
that burned down the radio station that was responsible for the broadcast.

	Well i am not so sure about your conclusion, However i do have an old 
post on this subject...

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	We have often heard the cry of people that the American government
among others, is hiding evidence of UFO's. The most common reason giving
for such behavior is that they do this to prevent panic among people. In
fact, there is a Government study that also has this claim, (in the early
1960s, the Brookings Institution reported that such a discover of aliens
would have devastating effects on society.) When asked for evidence to
back up such an extraordinary claim that mass hysteria would break out,
the most often reported answer may be the October 30, 1938 Mercury Theater
broadcast of H. G. Wells' War of the Worlds. (A great parody of this mass
hysteria can be found in the X-Files 3.12, War of the Coprophages.)

	It is often held that the people were not reacting to aliens per
se but to the unknown. As aliens would certainly fall into that category
of "unknowns", this broad, sweeping classification does not seen to really
help us focus on what the unknown was and it may not help us to understand
this event. We can point to many other Mass Hysterias. (The European Witch
craze may be one such wide spread mass hysteria over time and place.) 1954
in Washington State people found pit marks (imaginary of course) on their
car windshields. It was rumored to be caused by Atomic Fall out. ( N. Z.
Medalia, O. Larsen, Diffusion and Belief in a collective Delusion.
Sociological Review, 23, 180-186, 1958)  The "El Chupacabras" story of the
last few years can also be seen as a case of mass of hysteria. In March of
1993 there was even a case where a giant 300 pound earthworm was reported
to be 79 feet long and across a busy highway cause wide spread panic in
Texas. This prompted the Federal Communication Commission (FCC) to impose
fines of 250 000$ for broadcasting knowingly false information. In each
case we have a panic and an unknown. Yet does lumping them all together
help us understand perhaps the greatest mass panic of all? Or are aliens a
rather special fear?

	Now some people have claimed that this reaction in 1938, of the
people, had nothing to do with aliens but with real factors such as the
war in Europe. (WW II) This absolute denial is kept even though some of
those paniced did so with the full belief that they had been wounded by
alien lasers! Yet, as It also happened again in Santiago, Chile on
November 12, 1944. Same play and the same reaction. (J. Bulgatz. Ponzi
Schemes, invaders from Mars and more extraordinary popular delusions and
the madness of crowds, Harmony Books, 1992.) Chile was also at war with
the Axis powers. So we cannot dismiss this claim out of hand, yet in the
light of other occurrences this explanation is weak at best.

	On February 12, 1949, in Quito, Ecuador, another radio play based
on the War of the Worlds create another case of mass hysteria. There was
no world war at the time. But the play was still about Aliens invading the
local area. So can we dismiss the hysteria of 38 and a pre-war fears? I
think it can be put aside.

	Yet we may find this evidence to be weak as well. Ecuador is a
third world country and 50 years ago it was not very sophisticated. As
such, can we find another example of such hysteria over the War of the
Worlds that would strengthen our case? In fact there is another case. This
is another example of a backwards country with no sophistication panicing
over the War of the Worlds broadcast. On October 31, 1974 another case of
mass hysteria broke out in Providence, Rhode Island... (at which point we
may have to rethink this theory.)

	Yet even that case could be seen as weak. It was 25 years ago. A
more modern audience would not be fooled by this today... Right?

	Right?

	Wrong.

	In Northern Portugal in 1988! (no less) another case of mass
hysteria over this play same play! (Bulgatz, p 139)

	So for over 50 years, we have had people panic over this one radio
play all over the world. In war time and in peace, in the poor countries
as well as the rich, people have paniced over this play.

	At some point we must admit that a phoney alien invasions may
cause panics even if it is only because they are part of the greater fear
of the unknown. As such the argument that if aliens arrived, that they
should be kept secret seems to make a lot of sense to avoid a mass panic
among the people and cannot be dismissed out of hand.

	(CF. Skeptical Inquirer, Vol 22, No 6, Nov/Dec 1988. P. 40-43.)




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So my question is this: is there actually any evidence at all to suggest
that the public at large really would panic if aliens showed up? Have there
been any studies carried out that support this notion?

	Here is an old post of mine on the subject of what the public feels:

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	On June 7, 1999, the Roper Organization asked a random sample of 1
971 people on alien life. (The margin of error for such polls is they are
95% sure that the results are within 2.5% if they had polled the entire
American population.) The poll was conducted at the behalf of the National
Institute For Discovery Science, (they paid for it!)

	They discovered that 25% felt that most people would "totally
freak out and panic" if evidence of aliens were found and confirmed.  10%
said most others would "act irrationally and become dangerous to others",
14% said that others would "begin to act very strangely". So almost half
the population was concerned about how others would react. Yet what about
the other half of the population? While startling, the other 1/2 felt that
the discovery of alien life, " most people would be concerned." (36% said
this) This was tempered by only 13% said "most people would handle the
information in a calm and rational way". So while 1/2 the population felt
such a discover would cause panic, 1/2 felt it would not.

	An incredible 80% of "influential" Americans would classify or
hide evidence of ET. I expect that they refer to higher income families.

	25% thought that UFO's were space ships, 19% said UFO's are normal
events that are misinterpreted by witnesses, 12% thought they were secret
government programs, 9% felt UFO's were hallucinations and 7% said
travelers from other dimensions.

	So what is the problem with this survey. Well for starters they
put out the release with out giving us the full questionaire and they
forget to give methodological data. such as definitions of influential
Americans or how the people were contacted etc. Both of which are easily
over come.

	No, the problem rest with that this survey shows a people divided.
When ever you have a population divided into a 50/50 split you have
problems. (Quebec's referendum) A people divided, the house cannot stand.
At least on this issue, there remains a lot of work to do within the
market place of ideas to convince people that the other side is wrong.

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		Just Thought I Should Mention It