| Subject: Re: Naked skepticism or why debunkers are ALWAYS clothed! |
| From: Xcott Craver |
| Date: 21/07/2003, 20:17 |
| Newsgroups: alt.alien.visitors,alt.paranet.ufo,sci.skeptic |
Kavik Kang wrote:
You are the one re-writing it. What it says is ""extraordinary claims
require extraordinary evidence", which is incorrect. Extraordinary
claims require the same exact type and level of evidence as any other
claim.
The property of extraordinary claims requiring extraordinary
evidence is a natural and direct consequence of the mathematics
behind Bayesian hypothesis testing.
You just do the math, you work out the optimal threshold
for deciding between a null and alternative hypothesis, and you
find that the threshold depends in part on the relative
plausibility of each claim (i.e., the estimated a priori
probabilities of each at the present time.) An extraordinary
claim results in a higher threshold, requiring a lot more
data points in its favor, or data points which extraordinarily
favor that claim over the other. Or both.
This is not an arbitrary principle some skeptics made up, but
a plain English restatement of a basic mathematical result in
hypothesis testing. Yes, extraordinary claims require
extraordinary evidence. Perhaps you can explain in further
detail why you have concluded the opposite?
-X