Garry Bryan <garry@soco.agilent.com> wrote in message news:<1058819589.346579@cswreg.cos.agilent.com>...

In alt.alien.visitors Xcott Craver <caj@b-r-a-i-n-h-z.com> wrote:
: Kavik Kang wrote:
:>
:> You are the one re-writing it. What it says is ""extraordinary claims
:> require extraordinary evidence", which is incorrect. Extraordinary
:> claims require the same exact type and level of evidence as any other
:> claim.
 
:        The property of extraordinary claims requiring extraordinary
:        evidence is a natural and direct consequence of the mathematics
:        behind Bayesian hypothesis testing.
 
:        You just do the math, you work out the optimal threshold
:        for deciding between a null and alternative hypothesis, and you
:        find that the threshold depends in part on the relative
:        plausibility of each claim (i.e., the estimated a priori
:        probabilities of each at the present time.)  An extraordinary
:        claim results in a higher threshold, requiring a lot more
:        data points in its favor, or data points which extraordinarily
:        favor that claim over the other.  Or both.
 
:        This is not an arbitrary principle some skeptics made up, but
:        a plain English restatement of a basic mathematical result in
:        hypothesis testing.  Yes, extraordinary claims require
:        extraordinary evidence.  Perhaps you can explain in further
:        detail why you have concluded the opposite?

If you claim that there are aliens and produce one, how is that any more 
"extraordinary" than stating there are white bears and producing one? In fact,
if the ET evidence *is* extraordinary, such as a device the size of a cigarette
pack that produces 10 megawatts of power, it would become it's own extrordinary
claim. . .

Garry 

Say what????   NEWSFLASH.......Garrrry has found an alien!!! So where
is it Garrrry??  You're making the claim that producing an alien is no
more extraordinary than producing a white bear so since we all
know(except for maybe you and you're halfwitted mates) that there are
white bears then by extension there must be aliens.   Well, where's
the alien kook???  Off cornholing a Tennessee hillbilly??  Having a
meeting with NASA at area 51??  Eating a watermelon outside Roswell by
the side of the road while trying to thumb a lift (for the last 56
years)??
The very clear mathematical answer at the top totally threw you didn't
it Garrrry???  Way over your empty little pinhead.
My 4 year old boy has more logical skills than you, fruitloop, in fact
way more.


Mike
 > 

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