Notorious net kook and utter ignoramus Garrrry "Always Wrong" Bryan wrote:

In alt.alien.visitors Xcott Craver <caj@b-r-a-i-n-h-z.com> wrote:
: Kavik Kang wrote:
:>
:> You are the one re-writing it. What it says is ""extraordinary claims
:> require extraordinary evidence", which is incorrect. Extraordinary
:> claims require the same exact type and level of evidence as any other
:> claim.

:        The property of extraordinary claims requiring extraordinary
:        evidence is a natural and direct consequence of the mathematics
:        behind Bayesian hypothesis testing.

:        You just do the math, you work out the optimal threshold
:        for deciding between a null and alternative hypothesis, and you
:        find that the threshold depends in part on the relative
:        plausibility of each claim (i.e., the estimated a priori
:        probabilities of each at the present time.)  An extraordinary
:        claim results in a higher threshold, requiring a lot more
:        data points in its favor, or data points which extraordinarily
:        favor that claim over the other.  Or both.

:        This is not an arbitrary principle some skeptics made up, but
:        a plain English restatement of a basic mathematical result in
:        hypothesis testing.  Yes, extraordinary claims require
:        extraordinary evidence.  Perhaps you can explain in further
:        detail why you have concluded the opposite?

If you claim that there are aliens and produce one, how is that any more "extraordinary" than stating there are white bears and producing one?

I claim there are white bears. Go to the San Francisco zoo and check out the polar bear exhibit. Ok, your turn. Where can I find your imaginary "little doctor" aliens?

In fact,
if the ET evidence *is* extraordinary, such as a device the size of a cigarette
pack that produces 10 megawatts of power, it would become it's own extrordinary
claim. . .

Fantasizing noted. Quit spinning fantasies and answer the above question, kook. If your fantasies are real then you ought to be able to answer it as well as I did.

--
The Evil Michael Davis(tm)
http://mdavis19.tripod.com
http://skepticult.org Member #264-70198-536
Member #33 1/3 of The "I Have Been Killfiled By Tommy" Club

"I don't have to do anything except post my name and it get ridiculed whether it has anything to do with UFO's or not." - Garrrry Bryan brags about the reputation he has built for himself.