In alt.alien.visitors Michael Davis <mdavis19@ix.netcom.com> wrote:
: Notorious net kook and utter ignoramus Garrrry "Always Wrong" 
: Bryan wrote:

:> In alt.alien.visitors Xcott Craver <caj@b-r-a-i-n-h-z.com> wrote:
:> : Kavik Kang wrote:
:> :>
:> :> You are the one re-writing it. What it says is ""extraordinary claims
:> :> require extraordinary evidence", which is incorrect. Extraordinary
:> :> claims require the same exact type and level of evidence as any other
:> :> claim.
:> 
:> :        The property of extraordinary claims requiring extraordinary
:> :        evidence is a natural and direct consequence of the mathematics
:> :        behind Bayesian hypothesis testing.
:> 
:> :        You just do the math, you work out the optimal threshold
:> :        for deciding between a null and alternative hypothesis, and you
:> :        find that the threshold depends in part on the relative
:> :        plausibility of each claim (i.e., the estimated a priori
:> :        probabilities of each at the present time.)  An extraordinary
:> :        claim results in a higher threshold, requiring a lot more
:> :        data points in its favor, or data points which extraordinarily
:> :        favor that claim over the other.  Or both.
:> 
:> :        This is not an arbitrary principle some skeptics made up, but
:> :        a plain English restatement of a basic mathematical result in
:> :        hypothesis testing.  Yes, extraordinary claims require
:> :        extraordinary evidence.  Perhaps you can explain in further
:> :        detail why you have concluded the opposite?
:> 
:> If you claim that there are aliens and produce one, how is that any more 
:> "extraordinary" than stating there are white bears and producing one?

: I claim there are white bears. Go to the San Francisco zoo and 
: check out the polar bear exhibit. Ok, your turn. Where can I find 
: your imaginary "little doctor" aliens?

I've heard they tend to gather at Groom Lake. .. go see for yourself. . .just 
seeing a white bear isn't proof that it isn't dyed or some other animal. . .
but a sceptic such as yourself would know that. . .

:> In fact,
:> if the ET evidence *is* extraordinary, such as a device the size of a cigarette
:> pack that produces 10 megawatts of power, it would become it's own extrordinary
:> claim. . .

: Fantasizing noted. Quit spinning fantasies and answer the above 
: question, kook. If your fantasies are real then you ought to be 
: able to answer it as well as I did.

Why skip over the point. .. if my proof of alien existance was an item unlike
any that mankind can produce that would be extra-ordinary, not the original 
claim. . .

Garry