Subject: Re: Naked skepticism or why debunkers are ALWAYS clothed!
From: Xcott Craver
Date: 24/07/2003, 21:54
Newsgroups: alt.alien.visitors,alt.paranet.ufo,sci.skeptic

Kavik Kang wrote:

However, my only point is that extraordinary claims do not require a
higher evidencial standard with regards to individual data points.
There is still only one kind of evidence.

       No, single data points can support an hypothesis very weakly or
       very strongly.  That is to say, there are single data points that
       are mildly compelling, and ones which are extraordinarily
       compelling.  An hypothesis might be accepted after a million
       moderately compelling observations, or a few extraordinary ones.

An extraordinary claim would reasonably require more points of
evidence, but those individual points of evidence need not be held to
a higher standard than simply due to the nature of the claim.

       The entire body of evidence is held to a higher standard based
       on the nature of the claim.  The body of evidence may meet
       this standard by virtue of quantity, or quality, or both.

First and foremost is that I see only one type of evidence. Evidence
is evidence. If there were truly such a thing as "extraordinary
evidence", you would expect the term "extraordinary proof" to make
sense, which it does not.

       Why would I expect such a thing?  Proof is a different concept,
       and the existence of different degrees of evidence does not
       seem to imply any such degrees of "proof."

Then there is the cliche, "who is the judge of what is extraordinary?"
Exactly who decides what is extraordinary evidence, and what is not.

       There are some clear common-sense principles.  For instance,
       a weak, complex-seeming radio transmission from outer space,
       which is nonsensical but appears to have some structure, might
       be evidence of extra-terrestrials, whereas an alien craft is
       very clear, very extraordinary evidence for the same.
       You'd need a lot of fuzzy radio transmissions to convince people,
       but only one verifiably alien craft:  an extraordinary amount of
       ordinary evidence, or a little bit of extraordinary evidence.
       See?

                                                      --X