In article <bsn5bu$11op$1@pencil.math.missouri.edu>, map@economicdemocracy.org
says...

"The human health toll taken by global warming will depend to a large
extent on us."

"..global warming is projected to double the number of
deaths related to heat waves by 2020. [and] prolonged heat can increase smog
and the dispersal of allergens, causing respiratory symptoms..."

"Malaria has already returned to the Korean peninsula, and parts of
the US, southern Europe and countries of the former Soviet Union have
experienced small outbreaks. Some models project that by the end of
this century, the zone of potential malaria transmission will contain
about 60 percent of the world's population, up from 45 percent now."

>From Taipei Times

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The chilly health impact of global warming

Pollution, disease and respiratory distress are some of the less
familiar effects of global warming, though the consequences may not be
all bad

By Paul R. Epstein

Friday, Dec 26, 2003,Page 9

Few scientists today doubt that Earth's atmosphere is warming. Most
also agree that the rate of heating is accelerating and that the
consequences could become increasingly disruptive. Even schoolchildren
can recite some projected outcomes: Oceans will warm and glaciers will
melt, causing sea levels to rise and salt water to inundate low-lying
coastal areas. Regions suitable for farming will shift.

But less familiar effects of global warming -- namely, serious human
medical disorders -- are no less troubling. Many are already upon us.

Most directly, global warming is projected to double the number of
deaths related to heat waves by 2020. Prolonged heat can increase smog
and the dispersal of allergens, causing respiratory symptoms.

Global warming also boosts the frequency and intensity of floods and
droughts. Such disasters not only cause death by drowning or
starvation, but also damage crops and make them vulnerable to
infection and infestations by pests and choking weeds, thereby
contributing to food shortages and malnutrition. They displace entire
populations, leading to overcrowding and associated diseases, such as
tuberculosis.

Developing countries -- where resources to prevent and treat
infectious diseases are scarce -- are most vulnerable to other
infectious diseases associated with climate change. But advanced
nations, too, can fall victim to surprise attack -- as happened last
year when the first outbreak of West Nile virus in North America
killed seven New Yorkers. International commerce and travel enable
infectious diseases to strike continents away from their sources.

Of course, not all the human health consequences of global warming
may be bad. Very high temperatures in hot regions may reduce snail
populations, which have a role in transmitting schistosomiasis, a
parasitic disease. High winds -- caused by parching of the earth's
surface -- may disperse pollution. Warmer winters in normally chilly
areas may reduce cold-related heart attacks and respiratory ailments.

Overall, however, the undesirable effects of more variable and extreme
weather are likely to overshadow any benefits.

Diseases relayed by mosquitoes -- malaria, dengue fever, yellow fever,
and several kinds of encephalitis -- are causing particularly grave
concern as the world warms. These disorders are projected to become
increasingly prevalent because cold weather limits mosquitoes to
seasons and regions with certain minimum temperatures.

Extreme heat also limits mosquito survival. But within their
survivable range of temperatures, mosquitoes proliferate faster and
bite more as the air becomes warmer. Greater heat also speeds the rate
at which pathogens inside them reproduce and mature. The immature
malaria parasite takes 26 days to develop fully at 20oC, but only 13
days at 25oC. The Anopheles mosquitoes that spread malaria live only
several weeks, so warmer temperatures enable more parasites to mature
in time for the mosquitoes to transfer the infection.

As whole areas heat up, mosquitoes enter formerly forbidden
territories, bringing illness with them, while causing more disease
for longer periods in the areas they already inhabit. Malaria has
already returned to the Korean peninsula, and parts of the US,
southern Europe and countries of the former Soviet Union have
experienced small outbreaks. Some models project that by the end of
this century, the zone of potential malaria transmission will contain
about 60 percent of the world's population, up from 45 percent now.

Similarly, Dengue fever -- a severe flu-like viral illness that can
cause fatal internal bleeding -- has broadened its range in the
Americas over the past 10 years, reaching down to Buenos Aires by the
end of the 1990s. It has also found its way to northern Australia.
Today it afflicts an estimated 50 to 100 million people in the tropics
and subtropics.

These outbreaks, of course, cannot be traced conclusively to global
warming. Other factors -- declines in mosquito control and other
public health programs, or rising drug and pesticide resistance --
could be involved. But the case for a climatic cause becomes stronger
when outbreaks coincide with other projected consequences of global
warming.

Such is the case in the world's highlands. 

In the 19th century, European colonists in Africa settled in the
cooler mountains to escape the dangerous swamp air ("mal aria") in the
lowlands. Today, many of those havens are compromised. As anticipated,
warmth is climbing up many mountains. Since 1970, the elevation at
which temperatures are always below freezing has ascended 150 meters
in the tropics. Insect-borne infections are being reported at high
elevations in South and Central America, Asia and east and central
Africa.

More droughts and floods due to global warming will also probably fuel
outbreaks of water-borne diseases. Paradoxically, droughts can favor
water-borne diseases -- including cholera, a cause of severe diarrhea
-- by wiping out supplies of safe drinking water, concentrating
contaminants and preventing good hygiene. Lack of clean water also
limits safe rehydration of diarrhea or fever sufferers.

Floods, meanwhile, wash sewage and fertilizer into water supplies,
triggering expansive blooms of harmful algae that are either directly
toxic to humans, or contaminate the fish and shellfish that humans
consume.

The human health toll taken by global warming will depend to a large
extent on us. Effective surveillance of climate conditions and of the
emergence or resurgence of infectious diseases or their carriers
should be a global priority, as should providing preventive measures
and treatments to at-risk populations.

But we must also limit human activities that contribute to atmospheric
heating, or that exacerbate its effects. Little doubt remains that
burning fossil fuels contributes to global warming by spewing carbon
dioxide and other heat-absorbing, "greenhouse" gases into the air.
Analysis of tree rings identifies fossil fuels as the source of the 30
percent increase in greenhouse gases over pre-industrial levels.
Cleaner energy sources must be adopted, while forests and wetlands
must be preserved and restored to absorb carbon dioxide, and to absorb
floodwaters and filter contaminants before they reach water supplies.

None of this will come cheap. But humanity will pay a far dearer price
for inaction.

Paul R. Epstein is Associate Director of the Center for Health and the
Global Environment, Harvard Medical School.

Copyright ) 1999-2003 The Taipei Times. All rights reserved.

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