UFO's and Extraterrestrial Aliens: Why Earth Has Never Been Visited
by Rich Deem
Have alien intelligences from other parts of the universe visited the
earth? This page is an attempt to rationally look at the issue of UFO's and
extraterrestrials. Within the last few years, scientists have gained
considerable knowledge about the universe so that the question of
extraterrestrial visitations can be addressed from a scientific, rational
perspective.
Aliens visiting from elsewhere in the universe?
Have we been visited by extraterrestrial beings from elsewhere in the
universe? First, I would like to eliminate the idea that we have been
visited by beings located outside our own galaxy. Andromeda, the nearest
galaxy to the Milky Way is 2 million light years distant. This means that if
there were aliens in Andromeda, it would take them longer than 2 million
years to come to earth.1 Another problem is why they would want to visit our
galaxy. The Andromeda galaxy is considerably larger than our galaxy. If life
were common in the universe, there should be many times more of it in
Andromeda, then in our wimpy galaxy. Why would they even want to visit us? A
third problem for potential aliens is detecting us. We have been sending
radio waves for less than 100 years. It will be another 2 million years
before those signals reach our closest neighboring galaxy. The light (and
other electromagnetic signals) that they now see represent the way the earth
looked 2 million years ago. Beings in other galaxies would have no way of
knowing that advanced life forms existed in our galaxy.
SETI - aliens in our own galaxy?
Scientists have been actively searching for extraterrestrial intelligence in
our galaxy for the last forty years. The search for extraterrestrial
intelligence (SETI) has extended out to 40,000 light years from earth (in
comparison, the galaxy is 100,000 light years across).2 To date, no signal
from any extraterrestrial stellar system has ever been detected.
How many alien civilizations in our galaxy?
The Drake Equation (named for Frank Drake, the originator of the equation)
is a way to estimate how many intelligent extraterrestrial civilizations
might inhabit our galaxy. Below is the Drake Equation:
N = R* x fs x fp x nE x fl x fi x fc x L
R* =
average star formation rate
fs =
fraction of "suitable" stars capable of supporting a habitable planet.
fp =
fraction of suitable stars with planets.
nE =
average number of "Earth-like" planets.
fl =
average fraction of Earth-like planets with life.
fi =
average fraction of life-bearing planets evolving at least one
intelligent species.
fc =
average fraction of planets with intelligent civilizations capable of
interstellar communication.
L =
average lifetime that a civilization remains technologically active and
will use radio communication.
These are the values based upon the most recent astronomical data:
Parameter
Optimistic Pessimistic
------------------------------------------------------------------------
R* 10 3
fs 0.02 0.01
fp 0.75 0.1
nE 0.01 0.00001
fl 1.0 0.00001
fi 0.0001 0.000001
fc 1.0 0.1
L 1,000,000,000 100,000,000
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total
150 0
A most optimistic estimate for the number of intelligent civilizations in
our galaxy is 150. This would mean that each intelligent civilization would
be separated by an average of 2,000 light years. Such vast distances make
contact unlikely and finding other advanced civilizations improbable. If
these civilizations exist, they will not detect our radio signals for
another 1900 years. How will they even know we are here? For information on
how these results were calculated, see the appendix.
Fermi Paradox - Where are they?
Enrico Fermi, a prominent nuclear physicist of the last century, asked the
question, "Where are they? Shouldn't their presence be obvious?" Given at
least 10 billion years for the existence of the Milky Way galaxy, one would
think that intelligence would have developed before now - if life were
common in the universe. Even at slow interstellar speeds, humans with
advanced rocketry skills might be able to explore the galaxy in a few tens
of million years. Some have suggested that aliens would choose not to reveal
themselves to us. However, Frank Drake estimated that at least 10,000
advanced civilizations exist in the Milky Way. Carl Sagan raised the
estimate to 1,000,000. Would all those civilizations stay at home or choose
to conceal themselves from us? It seems highly unlikely. It would seem more
likely that they do not exist.
Interstellar space travel - BIG problems
Obviously, our current rocket technology is incapable of providing the speed
needed to make interstellar travel realistic. Matter/anti-matter engines
might provide the power to accelerate near the speed of light. However,
there is no way to contain or generate large amounts of anti-matter. The
only way that we have done so now is through extremely large (miles across)
particle accelerators. However, the meager few anti-matter particles
generated are rapidly destroyed through interactions with ordinary matter.
Nuclear power would provide a long-lived fuel supply for interstellar
travel. Even so, such fuel would last only tens of years before being spent.
Fusion power is yet to be harnessed, but would, likewise, fuel would
eventually run out. According to Frank Drake, "To send a spacecraft the size
of a small airliner at one-tenth the speed of light requires as much energy
as the US now produces in more than a hundred years."3 This does not sound
practical to me!
Assuming that fuel and propulsion problems could be eventually solved, there
are other, more serious, problems to contend with. Traveling near the speed
of light is no simple problem. Running into small particles (like the size
of a grain of sand) would punch major holes in any spacecraft, due to the
high speed of impact. According to Frank Drake, "At relativistic speeds,
even a collision with a particle of a few grams results in something close
in energy to a nuclear bomb blast. Not good news for the space travelers."3
A major biological problem seldom mentioned in the press is the blue
shifting of the light from ordinary stars when traveling near the speed of
light. The Doppler effect of traveling at such speeds would blue shift
ordinary visible light all the way to the wavelength of gamma and x-rays.
Shielding gamma rays is next to impossible (they can even travel through the
earth). When they do strike matter (like space traveler's bodies), the
results are devastating. This problem alone might restrict the speed of
space travel to a small fraction of the speed of light.
Other significant problems would be involved in trying to keep biological
organisms alive for many years of space travel. The lack of gravity would
likely be fatal within a couple years (determined from the effects of
prolonged weightlessness among the astronauts of the Space Station).
Generating gravity would be possible through spinning, but might severely
restrict the design of propulsion systems. In addition, it would be
impossible to carry enough food and water for such a trip. Two solutions are
possible - though not within the technology that we currently possess. One
solution is to recycle all carbon and water. This process would have to
involve capturing all biological waste (and dead bodies) and converting it
back into food and water (doesn't sound appetizing, does it?). The idea of
making a self-contained bio-habitat is appealing, but impractical, due to
the large amount of space required. A recent attempt to do this on earth was
a miserable failure, since the designers failed to provide enough space to
support all members of the small crew. A second possible solution to the
food problem would be to put the travelers into suspended animation.
Currently, we have no idea how to do this, and it does not seem possible to
do so.
What about all the sightings, Roswell, abductions, etc.
UFO believers would ask about Roswell, UFO sightings and alien abductions.
The problem I have with the whole Roswell/government conspiracy thing is
that there is not one piece of physical evidence. The government has never
been able to keep any kinds of secrets - much less over a period of 40
years. Regarding abductions, none of the people involved have been shown to
have any signs of tampering, which would be readily apparent by MRI.
PBS has a good series on why scientists are skeptical about UFOs and
abductions. See the comments of
a.. Carl Sagan
b.. Paul Horowitz
c.. Philip Klass
Conclusions
This paper has shown that the probability of aliens visiting the earth is
virtually zero. Potential aliens in other galaxies are too far away to
detect our presence (since radio signals will not reach them for millions of
years) and the travel times make intergalactic travel impractical. Recent
scientific studies demonstrate that the universe is much less hospitable to
life than it would seem from our unique Solar System and planet. A large
proportion of our galaxy is uninhabitable. Parts of it would not even be
expected to produce rocky planets. The highly unlikely collision that
produced our large moon prevented the earth from being a waterworld.4 It
also ejected the majority of our primordial atmosphere, which prevented the
earth from going through a runaway greenhouse effect similar to what
happened to Venus, our sister planet. Finally, our Solar System is unique in
that it has large gas giants located only in the outer regions. Other
systems discovered have gas giants located either near their star or in both
inner and outer regions of their planetary system. The presence of gas
giants near the star would eject any rocky planets from orbit. The presence
of gas giants in the outer region of planetary systems is absolutely
necessary for the survival of advanced life forms. Without Jupiter, the
number of catastrophic collisions that the earth would experience would be
at least 10,000 times greater. So instead of suffering massive species
extinction events every 100 million years, the earth would experience these
events every 10,000 years.5 Only bacteria and other simple life forms would
be able to survive this kind of bombardment - no advanced life could ever
form in the vast majority of planetary systems. These problems indicate that
there would be no more than 150 advanced civilizations within our galaxy -
and, more likely, we are completely alone in our galaxy.
Interstellar space travel is much more difficult than indicated in movies
and television series, such as Star Trek and Star Wars and the like. First,
it is not possible to travel at speeds greater than the speed of light - the
physics of the universe prevent it. Second, traveling near the speed of
light is impractical for biological organisms. Collisions with particles
even the size of a grain of sand would be catastrophic. An even worse
problem is that the light from ordinary stars would be blue-shifted all the
way to the gamma end of the spectrum when traveling near the speed of light.
These gamma rays would destroy all biological life - even if it were in
suspended animation (if that were possible). In essence, these problems
would restrict the speed of travel to well below the speed of light. The
most optimistic estimate for the presence of extraterrestrial civilizations
would put them 2000 light years apart. With no intermediate habitable
stopping points, space travel over this distance would be impractical. So,
even if we are not alone in this galaxy, it would be highly unlikely that
any extraterrestrial civilization could have visited us. What about all the
"evidence" for extraterrestrials and UFOs? See the links below for more
information.
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Related UFO Links
a.. Confessions of the crop circle conman - Just a couple of "good ole
boys" with an artistic bent having fun on Friday nights! Sorry, no mystery
here.
b.. Circular Reasoning: The 'Mystery' of Crop Circles and Their 'Orbs' of
Light (Skeptical Inquirer September 2002)
c.. Nickell, Joe, and John F. Fischer. 1992. The crop-circle phenomenon:
an investigative report. Skeptical Inquirer 16:2 (Winter), 136-149.
d.. How to Make Your Own UFO (from NASA)
e.. Alien Autopsy: Table of Contents - Have a good laugh at their
mistakes!
f.. The Truth Is, They Never Were 'Saucers' - Psychic Vibrations
(Skeptical Inquirer September 1997) - The original 1947 sighting said they
looked like boomerangs that "flew erratic, like a saucer if you skip it
across the water," but the reporter's account called them "flying saucers."
The legend had begun...
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Related Pages
a.. The Incredible Design of the Earth
b.. From the Beginning to Man- How God Declares His Love to Us Through the
Design of the Universe
c.. Is the Chemical Origin of Life (Abiogenesis) a Realistic Scenario?
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Addition Resources:
Rare Earth: Why Complex Life is Uncommon in the Universe by Peter D. Ward
and Donald Brownlee
A recent (2000) secular book that recognizes the improbable design of the
earth. Paleontologist Peter D. Ward and astrobiologist Donald Brownlee
examine the unusual characteristics of our galaxy, solar system, star, and
Earth and conclude that ET may have no home to go to.
<< back
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Appendix - how the results were calculated
R*
(average star formation rate) The current rate of star formation is ~3
stars/year. However, in the past, the rate was higher. The average rate over
the history of our galaxy was ~10 stars/year.6
fs
(fraction of "suitable" stars capable of supporting a habitable planet)
95% of stars are smaller than the Sun.7 Small stars put out less energy,
requiring potential life-containing planets to be closer to their star. The
gravitational tidal effects result in synchronous rotation (where one side
of the planet always faces the star), would affect atmospheric freeze-out
due to the cold dark side. Large stars (more than twice the size of the Sun)
burn erratically and rapidly (burn out in less than 1 billion years - too
short to develop advanced life).7 Variable stars, neutron stars, and white
dwarf systems are too unstable to support life. Only the area within 10,000
light years of the Sun are suitable stars (the galactic habitable zone).8
Radiation levels are too high near the center of our galaxy due to high
densities. In addition, planetary orbits are likely to be less stable, due
to stellar interactions. Stars in the outer region of our galaxy are
unsuitable, since the rate of star formation is too low, resulting in low
metallicity. Only about 20% of stars fall within the galactic habitable
zone. Not only is the Sun within this zone, but it is between spiral arms,
which puts it in a low density area. The Sun is at the co-rotation radius of
the galaxy, which means that the orbits of surrounding stars are stable -
proceeding at the same rate.9 In other regions of the galaxy, stars rotate
at different rates around the galactic center, going in and out of the
spiral arms as the galaxy rotates. The co-rotation radius is the only radius
in the galaxy where stellar orbits do not interact. (0.05 * 0.2 = 0.01)
fp
fraction of suitable stars with planets. To date, about 10% of stars
studied have planets orbiting them.10 Rocky planets cannot form unless the
amount of metallicity is at least 60% of that of the Sun. The Sun is an
unusually metal-rich star (richest out of 174 well-studied stars).7 The
number of rocky planets is unknown, since none have been detected to date.
Part of the problem is due to the limits of detection. This should change by
2007 when the Kepler Mission becomes operational.10 Optimistic estimates
claim that rocky planets are common (at least 75% of systems will have
them). However, if the abundance of rocky planets is similar to the
percentage of stars that have gas giants, the estimate could go as low as
10% (and possibly much lower).
nE
average number of "Earth-like" planets. Not all rocky planets would be
capable of supporting advanced life. Small rocky planets would loose their
atmospheres (like Mars) shortly after formation. Large rocky planets would
hold too much atmosphere, resulting in runaway greenhouse effect. Probably
less than 10% of rocky planets would be right size to support advanced life.
The habitable zone for planets is relatively small, representing less than
10% of the area where rocky planets might form. The planet must be able to
support plate tectonics. Without plate tectonics, planets would be
waterworlds (no dry land) and necessary nutrients would never be recycled.
Intelligent life capable of communicating with us could not be exclusively
aquatic, requiring the presence of land. Plate tectonics are a function of
the thickness and composition of the crust and the presence of a large
metallic core. None of the other rocky planets in our Solar System, other
than earth, exhibit plate tectonics. Venus, which is nearly the same size as
earth, does not have plate tectonics. Although driven by radioactive decay
that keeps the mantle liquid, the ability of plate tectonics to function
seems to be due to the removal of ~70% of the primordial crust of the Earth
to a position in orbit overhead (during the collision that formed the
moon).11 If that crust were returned and replaced on Earth it would fill the
ocean basins with wall-to-wall continent. This would choke plate tectonics,
as on Venus, and displace the oceans to flood the land to a depth of several
miles. Nick Hoffman, Senior Research Scientist at La Trobe University,
Melbourne Australia, claims that extraterrestrial "worlds will be, almost
without exception, waterworlds."12 Although collisions would have been
common during the accretion phase of formation of the Solar System, a highly
unlikely collision would be required to eject the earth's crust into orbit
and deposit the core of the collider into the earth's core. The probability
of such an event would likely be less than 1 in 10,000. Other problems
involve the presence of other gas planets in the stellar system. The current
information on extrasolar planets indicate that a large percentage of the
giant planets tend to migrate inward towards their star after formation,
which would eject any Earth-sized planets from the habitable zone. A very
optimistic estimate of this value would be 0.01. It is more likely that this
value would be less than 0.00001.
fl
average fraction of Earth-like planets with life. This value is quite
disputable and subject to a wide latitude of possible values. Many
scientists assume that since the earth developed life at a time when the
conditions were inhospitable, that life emerges on virtually every planet
that is capable of supporting it, There are some major flaws with this idea.
First, it is now known that the "prebiotic conditions" assumed to have been
present soon after the earth's formation never existed. Oxidation of zircons
over 4 billion years ago demonstrate that free oxygen was present on the
earth before life emerged.13 None of the prebiotic chemistry works in the
presence of even small amounts of free oxygen. Even with unrealistic
"prebiotic conditions" the chemistry will not produce all the necessary
biomolecules required for the first living system. In addition, hydrothermal
sea vents, the current choice for the origin of life, would be unsuitable,
since cell membranes cannot assemble in the present of the salt of the
oceans (See Is the Chemical Origin of Life (Abiogenesis) a Realistic
Scenario?). Among all the 30,000 meteors collected on earth, none contain
any evidence that life exists outside of the earth. The assumption that fl
is nearly 1 is based upon the rapid appearance of life early in the history
of the earth, which many claim indicates that it is easily produced
abiotically in this universe. However, the science indicates that the
biological precursors of living systems cannot be produced naturalistically,
nor can they be assembled under conditions that existed on earth.
Realistically this value would be very small - probably even zero.
fi
average fraction of life-bearing planets evolving at least one intelligent
species. Intelligence is not something that would be expected to appear
automatically. Taking the earth as an example, it took over 3 billion years
for intelligent species to appear. Many worlds on which life might survive
would be inhospitable to advanced life forms. For example, the rotation of
the earth at its creation was complete in a scant 8 hours. At such rotation
rates, a calm day would be characterized by 1,000 mph winds. Needless to
say, intelligent beings would find it difficult surviving such conditions.
The only reason the earth's rotation period is now 24 hours is because of
our large moon. The gravitational braking of the moon has slowed the earth's
rotation to a reasonable rate, while the earth's gravity has slowed the
moon's rotation period to be in synchrony with its rate of revolution. Our
large moon provides extraordinary stability to the inclination of the
earth's orbit (23.5�).14 Most planets exhibit up to 90� flips over periods
of millions of years. Flips in which one pole faces the star would result in
temperature instabilities of major proportion. The side facing the star
would get very hot, while the side facing away from the star would be
extremely cold. The length of the planet's day would be the equivalent of
the planet's year, with many months of scorching temperatures followed by
many months of frozen winter. Plants would be unable to survive such
conditions, resulting in the collapse of the entire planet's ecosystems. Our
Solar System is unique in that it has large gas giants located only in its
outer regions. Other systems discovered so far have gas giants located
either near their star or in both inner and outer regions of their planetary
system. The presence of gas giants near the star would eject any rocky
planets from orbit. The presence of gas giants in the outer region of
planetary systems is absolutely necessary for the survival of advanced life
forms. Without Jupiter, the number of catastrophic collisions that the earth
would experience would be at least 10,000 times greater. So instead of
suffering massive species extinction events every 100 million years, the
earth would experience these events every 10,000 years.5 Only bacteria and
other simple life forms would be able to survive this kind of bombardment -
no advanced life could ever form in the vast majority of planetary systems.
Since we have discovered no other planetary systems (out of nearly 200 found
to date) with large gas giants in a location to protect an inner planet from
devastating impacts, we must put these odds at less than 0.01. The odds of a
rocky planet having a collision to form a large stabilizing moon would also
be much less than 0.01. Therefore, a very optimistic estimate of fi would be
0.0001 (0.01 x 0.01). It is much more likely that the value would closer to
one in a million.
fc
average fraction of planets with intelligent civilizations capable of
interstellar communication. It would seem that any intelligent civilization
would eventually develop the ability to communicate through radio signals
(unless they destroyed themselves with nuclear weapons). It would seem that
this value would be close to one, although it would be difficult to estimate
scientifically.
L
average lifetime that a civilization remains technologically active and
will use radio communication. The lifetime of civilization is difficult to
estimate, but when can get an idea from our own planet. It took 4.5 billion
years for advanced life to appear on the earth. The earth will be complete
inhospitable to life within the next billion years due to increased solar
luminosity.15 According to Peter Ward, "The presence of complex life on the
Earth will end in no more than a billion years (and perhaps much sooner),
due to a sequentially predictable breakdown of habitable systems on our
planet.") Therefore, we can expect an average advanced civilization to exist
for about one billion years. However, it is likely that additional factors
may make this time much shorter. We are currently releasing carbon dioxide
into the atmosphere at a rate that could cause a runaway greenhouse effect
in a period of a few hundred years. Fortunately, it seems that the oceans
have absorbed a large amount of that extra carbon, potentially saving us
from our own self-induced doom.
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References
1.. It is physically impossible to travel at the speed of light or faster.
In addition, it takes near infinite energy to accelerate an object from
stationary to the speed of light. For this reason, interstellar travel can
only be a fraction of the speed of light. Realistically, it would probably
take at least 20 million years.
2.. ASTROBIOLOGY
3.. Relentless Evolution: Great Debates Part V
4.. The Moon And Plate Tectonics: Why We Are Alone
5.. Life on Earth: How Jupiter Helped and Hurt
6.. Lecture Life from the University of California, Santa Cruz.
7.. Lecture 24: Is There Other Intelligent Life in the Universe?
8.. In Search of the Milky Way's Habitable Zone
Forming Other Earths
9.. Mishurov, Y.N. and L. A. Zenina. 1999. Yes, the Sun is Located Near
the Corotation Circle. Astronomy & Astrophysics 341: 81-85.
10.. The Kepler Mission: Looking for Earth-sized Worlds
In globular cluster 47 Tucanae, scientists found zero extrasolar planets
out of 37,000 stars searched (Astronomers Ponder Lack of Planets in Globular
Cluster from the Space Telescope Science Institute).
11.. The Moon And Plate Tectonics: Why We Are Alone
12.. Venus - What the Earth would have been like
13.. Bortman, H. 2001. Life Under Bombardment from the NASA Astrobiology
Insititute. - Alternating layers of oxidized iron in the so-called banded
iron formation from Akilia Island in West Greenland demonstrates that free
oxygen has been present on earth longer than 3.85 billion years.
Dimroth, E. and M. Kimberley. 1970. Can. J. Earth Sci., 13:1161.
Carver, J. H. 1981. Prebiotic atmospheric oxygen levels. Nature 292:
136-138.
14.. Greate Debates: Part VI: Encore, The Experts Respond
15.. Lifetime of Complex Life: Great Debates Part IV
