POV that depends on how important national defense is to you.

It is a truism that generals always fight the last war. The war that
has to be fought is one against terrorism and insurgency. The long and
short of it is that globalization and nuclear weapons make war betwen
major powers unlikely. You do not shoot your customers - at least not
literally. There will be no war with China while there are trainers and
Tee shirts around. They are too interested in making money. An all out
war would involve nuclear weapond and be a disaster for both sides.

There is no threat to ICBMs until there is everything is gloss on the
cake. A bomb for Aurora will cost more than a standard cruise missile.
Best bet in conventional war is simply to swamp the enemy with criuse
missiles and decoys.

I also feel something else. A large arsenal contributes to the feeling
that a war agaist (say) Iraq or Iran can be won easily. We are
therefore more likely to have wars and have insurencies to deal with
than if we did not have such an arsenal.