Re: Ellen Brown: A Solution to the Federal Debt Crisis?

On Oct 5, 3:41�pm, Cardinal Chunder
<c...@foo.no.spam.xyzabcfghllaa.com> wrote:

On 20/09/2010 6:39, William Mook wrote:

Some believe the legend of aliens is a cover story to hide the fact
that the USA in the 1950s and 60s developed cybernetic organisms -


Some people are stupid then.


Not really.  If given a choice between aliens and cybernetic humans,
cybernetic humans are a better bet.

That's because cybernetic humans are vastly more likely than aliens if
you believe Drake's equation and the 3.0 billion year record of life
on Earth.

Consider that single-celled life arose only 1.5 billion years after
Earth formed, nearly the same time the surface cooled and water
accumulated.  Then, it another 1.5 billion years for multicelled life
arose on Earth in the wake of the development of photosynthesis which
created a crisis with oxygen.  Oxygen was a poisonous gas to the
anerobes that dominated the Earth 1.5 billion years ago.  So, life
joined into a collection of cells that created a skin that excluded
oxygen from within.  Then, very rapid development of organisms upon a
changing pattern of body forms.  Then, it took another 1.5 billion
years for big brains to occur.

This all suggests that life is easy, bodies are hard for life to do
and brains are hard for bodies to do.  So, we're at the end of two
hard to do processes.  The Anthropic Principle says it doesn't matter
how hard or unusual the process, if we're here to comment on it, it
had to happen.

The point of all this is that brains are doubly hard.

Now, add in technology.   Technology arose in 2 million years of big
brains.  This says technology is easy for creatures with brains.  But,
technology creates another crisis - something on part with the oxygen
crisis caused by photosynthesis.

Some have suggested that cybernetics is the natural consequence of
technology - and the next step in evolution.  We are an intermediary
form, not a final form.

The point is, the life span of a civilization may be very short - and
end up either in death of life on the world it arises on in very short
order - or spawn a stable answer that addresses the issue long term.

The point is, the Earth might have been lucky.  It may not be lucky
with this crisis.  If it is, it may spawn a change in living
conditions as radical as the change from a carbon dominated world with
anerobic mats and an oxygen dominated world filled with plants and
animals.


Applying this to what we know about the cosmos says that life like us,
intelligent technical animals piloting starships, might be common in
the cosmos, but rare on the scale of galaxies.  There are a lot of
lifeless rocks.  Fewer living worlds.  Fewer still with animals.
Fewer still animals with brains.  Fewer still post animals with brains
spawning some stable situation after.  Those other systems would find
about as much interest in us as we have in bread mold.  The
intelligent technical animals with spaceships and all transitional
forms, are least likely of all.  Those like us are likely number fewer
than 10,000 in a cosmos filled with 1 trillion galaxies.

The Drake Equation estimates the number of technical species.  The
best way to think about it is to first think about a light bulb
factory.  The number of bulbs is equal to the rate of light bulb
production times the life of a bulb.

    N = R x L

So, if 1,000 light bulbs per hour is produced and they each have a
lifespan of 3,000 hours - 3 million bulbs are in the world.

Now, consider how to compute the number of red bulbs versus white
bulbs.  Lets say the some fraction is red (fr)  say 1/4 -

    N = R x f x L

So, with f=1/4, R = 1,000/hr, L = 3,000 hr then Nr = 750,000

The same calculation can be made for ETI.

    N = R* x fp x fl x fb x fi x ft x L

Here fp=fraction of stars with planets
         fl = fraction of planets with life, easy
         fb = fraction of life with bodies, hard
         fi = fraction of brains with intelligence, hard
         ft = fraction of intelligence with technology, easy
         L = lifetime of technology, 500 years

R* in a galaxy is bout 20 per year.  fp=1, fl=.1, fb=.000001, fi=.
000001, ft=.1, L=500

   20 x 0.1 x 0.1 x 0.000001 x 0.000001 x 0.1 x 500 = 1 in 10 trillion
stars

about 10,000 species across the cosmos.

The cosmos may be filled with cybernetic life and rotten with dead
worlds - but life like us is very precious - life like us living for
more than 500 years - more unlikely still.