"Tony Sivori" <TonySivori@yahoo.com> writes:

I see the Fermi Paradox as based on an invalid assumption.

I used to live near the ocean, and would sometimes wade and swim in the sea.
I never saw a shark. Yet I did not exclaim "There are said to be sharks in
here, I don't see them and therefore they probably do not exist." I knew
they were there, but merely beyond the range of my human sensoria.

I believe that is a fairly good analogy to extraterrestrial intelligence.
The size of the universe is such that it is inconceivable that we are the
only technological beings in existence. Yet that same immense size that
assures we are not the only ones also insures that it is improbable that we
will interact with, or even detect them.

That is a very common belief, but it ignores one critical parameter: the
immense *age* of the universe.

Which insures that even the most lackadaisical technological beings will
get around to finishing their galactic colonization or megascale engineering
projects in a cosmic eyeblink.  They've had ten billion years to stop by for 
a visit, to build structures we can see from halfway across the galaxy, or 
whatever.  And yet, nothing.

Either we're the first, or something highly wierd is going on.  Wouldn't
be the first time the universe has thrown high wierdness at us, but the 
high wierdness doesn't fall to obvious explanations like "the universe is 
too big".


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