John Schilling wrote:

"Tony Sivori" <TonySivori@yahoo.com> writes:

I see the Fermi Paradox as based on an invalid assumption.

The size of the universe is such that it is inconceivable that we are the
only technological beings in existence. Yet that same immense size that
assures we are not the only ones also insures that it is improbable that
we will interact with, or even detect them.

That is a very common belief, but it ignores one critical parameter: the
immense *age* of the universe.

Not really. Timewise, it seems to me that there must be several steps in the
development of the universe before life as we know it can exist. Matter must
cool enough to condense past the subatomic particle phase. Stellar cycles
(star birth and novas) must happen before carbon can exist to develop into
molecules complex enough the reproduce. Even after life happens,
intelligence (especially technology bearing intelligence) probably does not
always evolve.

Which insures that even the most lackadaisical technological beings will
get around to finishing their galactic colonization or megascale

You're talking "galaxy" and I'm talking "universe". Compared to the rest of
the universe, our Galaxy is very tiny.

engineering projects in a cosmic eyeblink.  They've had ten billion years
to stop by for a visit, to build structures we can see from halfway
across the galaxy, or whatever.  And yet, nothing.

Ah, you assume a lot. That kind of engineering may be impossible. It may be
that no one exceeds the speed of light, ever. It may be that no one makes
materials that work on that scale, ever. It may be that no one ever makes
significant interstellar (never mind intergalactic!) travel commonplace.
Whatever we, or any intelligent race accomplishes in the future, there will
always be failed dreams.

Either we're the first, or something highly wierd is going on.  Wouldn't
be the first time the universe has thrown high wierdness at us, but the
high wierdness doesn't fall to obvious explanations like "the universe is
too big".

Religion may be a common curse of evolving intelligence, one that
permanently rules most intelligent species and one that rewards scientific
ideas with death.

Nor do I have much faith in the human race; I would give humanity no better
than 50 / 50 odds that we will be around in another 100,000 years. Even if
we learn to live together peacefully and tolerate our differences, our
technology may be our undoing.

That may be the usual pattern for technologically advanced intelligence: a
few thousand years of glory followed by self-inflicted extinction.

-- 
Tony Sivori