In message <bg7494$lea9r$1@ID-140514.news.uni-berlin.de>, Tony Sivori <TonySivori@yahoo.com> writes

John Schilling wrote:

"Tony Sivori" <TonySivori@yahoo.com> writes:

I see the Fermi Paradox as based on an invalid assumption.

The size of the universe is such that it is inconceivable that we are the
only technological beings in existence. Yet that same immense size that
assures we are not the only ones also insures that it is improbable that
we will interact with, or even detect them.

That is a very common belief, but it ignores one critical parameter: the
immense *age* of the universe.

Not really. Timewise, it seems to me that there must be several steps in the
development of the universe before life as we know it can exist. Matter must
cool enough to condense past the subatomic particle phase. Stellar cycles
(star birth and novas) must happen before carbon can exist to develop into
molecules complex enough the reproduce. Even after life happens,
intelligence (especially technology bearing intelligence) probably does not
always evolve.

But we've just had some compelling evidence that planets formed 13 billion years ago.

Either we're the first, or something highly wierd is going on.  Wouldn't
be the first time the universe has thrown high wierdness at us, but the
high wierdness doesn't fall to obvious explanations like "the universe is
too big".

Religion may be a common curse of evolving intelligence, one that
permanently rules most intelligent species and one that rewards scientific
ideas with death.

I'd like to think that religion is a passing fad. I certainly can't see it surviving the third (Christian) millennium, and it's only been a serious handicap for certain faiths and only the last 5 thousand years or so.

Nor do I have much faith in the human race; I would give humanity no better
than 50 / 50 odds that we will be around in another 100,000 years. Even if
we learn to live together peacefully and tolerate our differences, our
technology may be our undoing.

That may be the usual pattern for technologically advanced intelligence: a
few thousand years of glory followed by self-inflicted extinction.

Trouble is, you have to assume that _every_ technological race does this. It only takes one to escape, in the last 5 billion years or so.