On Wed, 30 Jul 2003, Paul F. Dietz wrote:

Conrad Hodson wrote:

Well, we now have data to constrain several of the original Drake guesses
more tightly.  And in _every case_ where more data has come in on Drake
equation elements, the change has been in favor of _higher_ probabilities
of life and intelligent life.

This doesn't mean much.  There's no requirement that all the terms in
the Drake equation be small for the result to be small.

Of course not.  But the trend is running very much in the other direction,
and that's my point.  Based on the data that has been hardened up, Drake
seems to have been way too conservative.  I find it very interesting that
the chorus of "we're alone, we're unique" seems to increase directly with
the accumulation of evidence against it.  This suggests to me that
unexamined emotions and prejudice is involved, rather than science.

Conrad Hodson