| Subject: Re: How smart are SETI@homers? |
| From: Rich |
| Date: 04/05/2004, 22:07 |
| Newsgroups: sci.astro.seti,alt.sci.seti,sci.space.policy |
In infinite wisdom Louis Scheffer answered:
Rich <someone@somewhere.com> writes:
[...]
Don't take this as an attack, it's not meant as one, but it seems
that you have a vested interest in this project.
I have my personal biases, like everyone else.
A vested interest is not a bias, it's a monetary stake in the
some outcome.
But assuming you have everything correct (and that it's built correctly),
what do you think the chances of success are?
I'm absolutely certain we could build a powerful microwave beacon
and train it on the stars. We can demonstrate that it's working by
bouncing radar echos off the outer planets.
Assuming that we could aim it at wherever the star will be years in
the future.
OK, what happens next?
Should we start deliberately transmitting to the stars? I'm not
sure (there are lots of ethics issues) but I'm leaning towards yes,
on the grounds that we are transmitting already whether we like
it or not. Plus that way we are at least consistent when listening
for deliberate transmissions.
So we are left anthromorphising potential aliens, that they would do
as we would do. I don't see any need to transmit, even if we spend
lots of time listening. And such transmissions could potentially
interfere with aircraft or satellite communications (and other SETI
projects) seems to me.
Will SETI succeed? This is a very open question - we just don't
know enough to judge our chances.
If you don't think the answer is yes, what's in it for you? Or do
you have a monetary stake in the array's construction, regardless
of whether it finds anything?
There seems to be lots of planets -
do many (or any) of them develop life? Does the life become
intelligent? Is it technological and wants to communicate?
All of these are hard questions, and the eventual answer seems
impossible to predict at this point.
And yet the entire exercise is predicated upon assuming that all
are true.
Are SETI searches worth the small amount we spend on them?
Absolutely, this is one of those high risk, high payoff gambles.
High payoff? How so?
Lou Scheffer
Rich