In infinite wisdom Joseph Lazio answered:

"R" == Rich  <someone@somewhere.com> writes:

R> In infinite wisdom Louis Scheffer answered:

Rich <someone@somewhere.com> writes:

Will SETI succeed?  This is a very open question - we just don't
know enough to judge our chances.

R> If you don't think the answer is yes, what's in it for you? Or do
R> you have a monetary stake in the array's construction, regardless
R> of whether it finds anything?

So the only things worth doing are the ones to which you know the
answer already?

I'm not at all clear how you transformed a question into a statement.
And I believe that, if he has a mind to, Louis Scheffer can speak for
himself.

Weren't you the one who posted the scientific method?  The one in
which one makes predictions and then tests them.  Doesn't that imply
that you don't know the answer a priori?

I submit that the question of the existence of ET life and the question
of the detectability of ET life, should it exist, are different
questions. And WRT SETI, is not detectability *the* issue?

There seems to be lots of planets - do many (or any) of them
develop life?  Does the life become intelligent?  Is it
technological and wants to communicate?  All of these are hard
questions, and the eventual answer seems impossible to predict at
this point.

R> And yet the entire exercise is predicated upon assuming that all
R> are true.

No.  I don't know why this is such a hard point to grasp.  There may
be ET life.  There may not.  We have no way of knowing without looking.

Only if you assume that the "looking" we can do is of sufficient
sensivity to detect ET life. And indeed, if ET is out there
trying to contact us, would we not have detected them already?

Are SETI searches worth the small amount we spend on them?
Absolutely, this is one of those high risk, high payoff gambles.

R> High payoff? How so?

Do you think of everything in terms of money?

Did I use the word "money"? I suggest that this is your paradigm, not
mine.

"Payoff" here is used in a broader sense.

I'm not at all certain that you can know what a high payoff would be
for Mr. Scheffer. And it's somewhat disturbing that you seem ready
to speak for him. Has he granted you permission to do so?

One of the reasons many scientists are scientists
is not because of the monetary rewards.

Money is your issue however.

I have friends who have moved
from astronomy to other careers and obtained much higher salaries as a
result.  I like the reward of being (or trying to be) the first to
find something that nobody else has seen.

Do you expect to see ET?

If you did, what would the payoff be for you? Or perhaps you've answered
that already, money.

Rich