Subject: Re: What is SETI?
From: stephen voss
Date: 09/05/2004, 16:29
Newsgroups: sci.astro.seti,alt.sci.seti,sci.space.policy


Well... That depends on one's point of view.

We are being constantly bombard by the news, fact books, 'experts',
and so on that there are no ETs in our solar system or on/in our
planet. But are these things true or not? If these things aren't true,
is it just an honest mistake or there's something more sinister behind
it?

The reason why alien civilizations may not want to communicate with us...

1) If you watched our signals, you would assume that there is a nominal
world government but that we are currently in a state of civil war
and have been so for the last 60 years.
2) An independent observer would view earth as primitive aggressive warlike xenophobic and politically unstable.

If I were leading an advanced scouting team for an alien civilization,
I would recommend continued discreet observation of the world in question.

Also the issue of radio waves is not as simple as it seems.
It is possible that there is a narrow range of time from
when it becomes possible to use radio waves for that purpose
to when a species becomes sufficently advanced as to no longer
use those frequencies. Such a period may only be 200 years or less.
In an additional 100 years...the technology for listening to
the old frequencies may disappear.

The Fermi paradox is not really valid for the following reasons.

1) If youre going to realistically maintain long term interstellar
communication youre going to have to develop reliable FTL communication...which we cannot currently detect.

2) The Fermi paradox is good math but lousy social science.
The roman empire mathematically could have colonized all of Asia,Europe and Africa in a period of 1000 years or so...but even beyond the battles. Their supply lines would be overextended. Also the cost
of sending out colonies requires wealth that the satellite colonies
may not have.

3) Its much easier to colonize 14000 nearby stars within a 100 light years than to send ships all over the galaxy.

4)The population curve suggests as a species becomes more prosperous
they have fewer children. Without huge booming populations, the
ability to have sprawling colonies quickly is reduced.

5) expansions of civilizations is not a steady thing, civilizations have
boom periods, decline periods, and some civilizations may just decline
to nothing.


Beyond a certain range civilizations do not spread unless there is some
sort of technological improvemment.