"Martin Andersen" <martin@al-data.dk> wrote in message
news:41b38ff1$0$155$edfadb0f@dtext02.news.tele.dk...
[.....]

I postulate: Kurtzweil's accelerated returns for technology is an

universal

law, applicable for any technological civilization, not just ours.

There are limitations to technology, as defined by the laws of physics.
Some example was the size of a probe which needs to observe and
communicate. There are many other examples, such as limitation of
any particle or information to the speed of light.

These limitation will cause any technological development to stall at some
point.
Microchips cannot scale below the limit of the wavelength on which they
operate, and the microwave background radiation of 2.7K and galactic
synchrotron radiation throws a monkey-wrench into interstellar microwave
communication, etc etc.

Technology is limited by what Nature allows.
It cannot infinitely grow exponentially.

[....]

How would these aliens live ? They would have solved all their problems
like lack of food,
diseases and energy sources. They have build their world just like they
want it.
The solarsystem they live in have more than enough materials for their
needs.

Such a civilization, could it be interested in emmigrating to earth ? To
conqueror earth
and kill us all ? The answer is no. If you had everything you needed,
would you travel
far far away to an uncertain destiny ? Of course not.

Unless your sun is about the Nova..... Then all bets are off. Who cares
about some sub-developed species when your own species' existence is at
stake ?
There might be many more reasons to get the hell out and destroy everything
you find in your way..
As we say in Dutch : "A cat in trouble make funcky moves".

[.....]

Sending a probe that large could be a security risk if it falls into the
wrong hands.
So they would send a stealth-probe, undetectable by radar or other means.

What would be the security risk ?
If there is no way to find out from the probe as to where it came from, then
that should be enough 'security'. If there is any extra cost involved in
making it 'invisible' or 'stealth', then there better be a good reason for
it. So it would be reasonable to assume that only a portion of interstellar
probes would be 'stealth'. Chances are that IF there is an ETI probe in our
solar system, it would NOT be stealth.

This point is not critical in solving the Fermi paradox. Critical is
that the aliens
only want information, they don't want to talk to us or kill us.
They could send a spaceship the size of the moon and place it just
outside Pluto's orbit, we wouldn't
see it. But why do that when you can ship something way smaller ?

Conclusion:

As of now, I see 2 solutions to Fermi's paradox:

1. We are alone in the Galaxy.

2. There are some highly advanced civilizations out there, only
interested in observing, gathering
information. They will not transmit any signals to us, but send probes
out to collect data.
We humans can't detect these aliens (yet), SETI will hear nothing.
But the law of accelerating returns is valid for human technology, soon
we will detect them, either
by extremely large optical telescopes, or by sending probes.

Somebody wrote a book with 100 explanations for the Fermi Paradox.
Personally, I think the reason is that civilisations do not stabilize before
they can reliably travel to other stars (see posting on sci.astro.seti).

In the end, we still don't know. And, maybe they ARE here. Maybe there is a
probe or two in our solar system, and maybe it is too small for us to detect
(at this point).
We can't even detect asteroids of 10m across until they (almost) hit us.
We have a long way to go.

Martin.