Subject: Re: Skeptic
From: "James Brown" <Jim@seti.net>
Date: 23/05/2005, 23:58
Newsgroups: alt.sci.seti

Well said.  It is next to hopeless of course but its like betting on a
1,000,000 long shot.  Its worth a buck.

P.S  The next Remote SETI Client software is ready to test.  You can
download it at:
http://www.seti.net/SETINet/SETINet.htm

I would like some feedback so that I can go ahead with it.


Argus Station: DM12jb
James Brown
W6KYP
Jim@SETI.Net [put 'SETI' in subject line]
www.seti.net

"Kerly2-Bill" <curly-bill@comcast.net> wrote in message
news:5aqdnauWpsgFqA_fRVn-uA@comcast.com...
Background
            I am a 79-year-old retired professor of information science.
I
have long been interested in radio waves ever since my days in WWII as a
navy radio operator.


SETI thoughts


I am increasingly skeptical of ever making meaningful contact with
intelligent life on other planets. The Drake Equation just doesn't
enumerate
all the requirements for intelligent life to exist:  including high
metal-content stars, stable orbits, stable atmospheres,



  But my overriding reason is the enormous distances.  Take a nearby
system:
100 light years.  That means it takes 100 years from the time a message is
sent from another planet for us to receive it, and then another 100 years
for our reply to be heard by the alien planet. That's 200 years round
trip.
A relatively nearby system of a thousand light years takes two thousand
years round trip. And most star systems are well beyond  a thousand light
years.



            Compared to other species on earth, mankind is extraordinarily
intelligent and has achieved mind-boggling things, all within the last
7,000
years, but it has taken 5 million years for intelligent man to develop.
If
it takes that long for intelligent life to develop on another planet.
That
life could have come and gone and we would never detect it.  Or, consider
that intelligent life has not yet taken place on another planet.  By the
time it does, we will probably be long gone.  Its a matter of timing.



            Millions of species have developed on earth.  One million
minus
one, Technological Homo sapiens has evolved to a highly advanced state
over
a very long time. Ability to send/receive radio waves containing
information

has only developed in the last 100 years.  Millions of species probably
have
developed on other planets.  It would be a happy coincidence if earth man
would ever coincide or codevelop with one alien planet intelligent
species.



            I think it far more likely that we will detect biology of
sorts,
rather than intelligent life on an extrasolar planets.   I think it's
hopeless.

 The Active Mind website,

 http://www.activemind.com/Mysterious/Topics/SETI/drake_equation.html,

 estimates that   the number of planets per star that are capable of
sustaining life (ne in the Drake equation) is 1 to 5.  I think, from what
we
now know of extrasolar planetary systems, this figure is far too high.



 But I hope I'm wrong.  That's why I'm participating in SETI@HOME. Current
work units:  4703.   S@H participant since June 1999.