| Subject: Re: The Fermi Paradox and SETI Success |
| From: Inez |
| Date: 14/08/2008, 19:57 |
| Newsgroups: sci.astro.amateur,alt.sci.seti,alt.sci.planetary,talk.origins |
Such arguments are based on using life on earth as a model, but
are also loaded with incorrect notions. First of all, there is no
"doctrine of progress" in evolution. Who says that intelligence is
sellected for? The most successful organisms on the earth are
the dumbest---bacteria---at least "dumbest by our standards".
Although to be fair to bacteria, few if any of them are creationists.
Nor do they follow Britney Spears' personal life excepting when she
has an STD.
Of all the human societies that have existed over the past 10,000
years, only one became oriented in the direction of intersteller
communication. We are new on the scene. There is no guarantee
that our culture will retain its high tech ways.
Take, for example, the Olduvai Theory:http://dieoff.org/page125.htm
which basically is Richard Dunkin's theory
stating that over the long haul, our
high-population, high-resource demanding culture will
collapse leaving a low population, low resource demanding
stone age culture.
This notion follows other biological growth scenarios that are
governed by the logistic equation. So, it may be that there
are some flash-in-the-pan high tech worlds out there, that last
a time measured in decades or centuries, and quickly drop
back to that more efficient totally renewable low tech stone age
culture that they sprang from. The Universe could be jam-packed
with human scale intelligent life forms, that are happly chipping
flint into arrowheads and burning wood fires.
Or, it could be worse. The universe could be filled with ecologically
spent "Easter Islands", where there are only ruins, and not even
wood to burn.
k
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