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If the stated figures are correct, the object was about 200 feet above the valley floor for most of the observation. The location of the party is at 570 feet MSL elevation and the floor of the valley is about 500 feet MSL, a difference of about 70 feet. The 200 foot AGL (valley) altitude of the object works for the surrounding ridges which average about 700 feet MSL (200 feet AGL) (corroborating the witness statement that the object did not alter altitude during its flight). But it also puts the object at an altitude of about 130 feet AGL relative to the party location. Would the object have been observable?
The following is a topographical profile along a line similar to one of those which would have had to have been used to see the object from the party location. The left edge is at that location.
In 1999, the side yard where the party is held is separated from the valley by trees roughly 20 feet high. Would this have constrained the view from that location to an elevation higher than where the object would have appeared?
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This panorama shows the back yard of the party house from the the center of the witness recall of the location of the party (to the left of the house). The valley is not at all visible from this location. (Note, some distortion has been caused by use of the wide angle lens, which prevents the images from fitting perfectly - however all images overlap and no area has been left out). This photo was taken after 5PM on 7/29/99. The trees are obviously somewhat higher than they were at the time of the sighting. The homeowner confirmed trees were present on that date. |
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| These images show the other side of the house, and demonstrate that the view of the ridge and valley is small. The left image is near the right rear corner of the house, while the right image is some distance (30 feet?) to the right. | |
In the absence of any specific measurement, it is assumed (based on the site visit) the distance from the average observer to the trees to be 50 feet. At that distance, the angular height of the trees would be about 20 degrees (an angular measumement of the highest tree indicates 25 degrees. The estimated path of the object is about 0.4 mi. from the location. A 20 degree lower limit at that distance translates into a minimum observable altitude of over 1500 feet MSL. So, for any area obscured by these trees, the object would have been too low for observation.
If the trees at 15 years old, they might have been about 2/3 the height five years ago (13 degrees) which would result in a minimum observable altitude of 860 feet MSL. This represents a space about 160 feet above the highest ridge below which the object would be unobservable.
In addition, the path length between ridges for the object is about a half mile. At 44 fps (30 mph), this will be completed in about one minute - at 65-70 mph (see observation constraints) it is less than half that. So not only do the party witnesses need to be in an area of the yard unobscured by trees, but they also need to be looking out over the valley during a time interval of about a half minute.
The angular size of a 500 foot object at a half mile is about 12 degrees, or close to four or five inches at arms length, so if the object were visible, it would seem it should also be noticable.
This site is an archive of the content of the MUFON CT website from the late 1990s. The current MUFON CT organization should be contacted through the MUFON web site.