The Levelland Sightings Of 1957 by Antonio F. Rullán: Weather

Weather According to the Air Force

ATIC concluded that there were severe electrical storms in Levelland on Nov. 2-3, 1957.  Nevertheless, of the five witnesses Sgt. Barth interviewed (who had sightings on the evening of Nov. 2 and early morning of Nov. 3), only the statement of two were recorded.    Newell Wright stated that there were heavy clouds and light rain.    Harold D. Wright stated that it was misty, with scattered clouds, slight breeze and occasional lightning.

The Air Intelligence Information Report, written by Col. Brunson, summarizes the conditions reported by the US Weather Station in Lubbock (which is only 32 miles east of Levelland).  The AIIR report states that a complete overcast existed with a 400-ft ceiling, visibility at 3 miles, surface winds were light and variable, and there was a drizzle or light rain throughout the period.  This weather report differs slightly from a teletype report sent to ATIC from the Commander of Walker AFB on November 4, 1957.  The teletype report states that there was unlimited ceiling, with visibility at 15 miles, that surface winds were 10 knots at 45 degrees, cloudy with light drizzle, and 5/10 to 9/10 of the sky was obscured.  Besides cloudy skies and light rain, no mention is made of a thunderstorm in these two reports.  A memo in the Blue Book files states that heavy thunderstorms were present in the area prior to the sightings, but no reference is made to the source of information.[58]  Capt. Gregory’s memo of January 3, 1958 stated that lighting discharges were definitely established through the results of numerous investigative reports.  This conclusion was probably arrived at after concluding that three of the sightings investigated by Sgt. Barth were due to lightning (Harold Wright, Weir Clem, and Lee Roy Hargrove).

Weather According to Dr. James. E. McDonald

In 1966, Dr. James McDonald re-investigated the Levelland case.  Dr. McDonald was a professor of atmospheric physics at the University of Arizona, and thus was very curious about the Air Force explanation of the case as ball lightning.   In a paper he wrote in 1967 for the American Society of Newspaper Editors, he summarized his findings on the weather conditions in Levelland at the time of the sightings.  McDonald writes: “I dug out the weather maps and rainfall data.  A large, high-pressure area was moving southward over the Texas panhandle, completely antithetical to convective activity and lightning of any sort.  A check of half a dozen stations in the vicinity revealed that there was not even any rain falling during this period, nor had more than a small amount fallen hours earlier that day when a cold front passed through”[59].

In 1966, he wrote a letter to Mr. Troy Morris (a member of the editorial staff at the Levelland Sun-News who was present at the time of the sightings) asking for weather conditions on the night of the Levelland sightings.  Mr. Morris replied in May 11, stating that “the night was clear and there was no clouds”[60].  McDonald called him on October 5 and Mr. Morris was “emphatic that the early hours of Nov. 3 were clear or nearly clear.  He, himself, when he heard the reports, went out to have a look on the roads.  He couldn’t understand why the Air Force would say that there were storms…”[61].

In summary, McDonald’s conclusions on the weather conditions in Levelland on the November 2nd-3rd 1957 were:

• a cold front had passed through Levelland earlier in the day on November 2
• conditions were not present for lightning to occur
• very little rain had fallen
• there were no storms at the time of the sightings

Weather According to Newspaper  Records

Weathermen in Levelland could not explain the sightings away as a weather phenomenon as early as November 5.  They were quoted in the Levelland Daily Sun-News: “weathermen said they could not explain away the sightings.  There were no thunderstorms in the area, and they scoffed at St. Elmo’s light”[62].

The Lubbock Morning Avalanche reported heavy rains in the area on Sunday, November 3 but there was no mention of a thunderstorm.  The article stated that “most area points reported rain starting just about sunrise Sunday and thickening into a heavy drizzle that continued most of the day.  Some towns received rain Saturday night and it still was raining at midnight Sunday in many places”[63]. The news report states that “a thin cold front eased into the South Plains early Sunday morning, sliding under warm air masses to trigger steady falling, general rains over West Texas and to keep the temperature in Lubbock below the 40 degree mark most of the day.  The South Plains registered some of the heaviest falls in the state Sunday with 1.5 inches reported at Post and Snyder”[64]. 

The El Paso Times also mentioned the cold front that hit Texas on November 2.  The paper stated: “rains up to two inches fell in parts of central Texas as a rather tame cold front moved into the area Saturday night.  The front reached central sections of the state at mid-afternoon, dropping temperatures a few degrees and switching winds to the north”[65].  The Fort Worth Star-Telegram also mentioned the cold front: “a mild cool front which pushed slowly through Texas during the week-end brought light to moderate rains over much of West and North Texas Sunday and dropped temperature to the 50 degree mark or below”[66].

In summary, the newspaper weather reports tend to agree with some of the witnesses that experienced light rain on the late evening of Saturday (November 2) or the early morning hours of Sunday (November 3).  None of these newspapers mentioned thunderstorms. The most relevant paper, the Lubbock Avalanche Journal (because Lubbock weather should have been similar to Levelland) did not mention any thunderstorm.  As a result, all we can conclude from the newspapers is that a cold front moved into West and North Texas on Saturday accompanied by light to moderate rains.

Weather According to US Weather Service

The US Weather Bureau has climatological data for Lubbock, Texas for 1957.  Since Lubbock is only about 32 miles east of Levelland, its weather conditions should be a good indication of weather conditions around Levelland for November 2 and 3 1957.  Daily average climatological data for November 1 through November 5 is shown below in Table 9:

Table 9: Local Climatological Data for Lubbock, TX - November 1957[67]

Based on daily average data collected at Lubbock, it appears that a cold front did move in towards the panhandle of Texas on November 2.  Moreover, the data sheet shows that on average, there was little rain on November 2 but almost 0.4 inches of rain on Sunday the 3rd.  No thunderstorms or lightning were recorded in Lubbock until November 5 on this daily average data sheet.  The Weather Bureau does have a more detailed data sheet for Lubbock showing precipitation and lighting activity on an hourly basis. An extract of this data sheet is shown in Table 10 below.  Table 10 shows the hourly level of precipitation and any reported thunderstorm in Lubbock from 8 PM on November 2 through 4 AM on November 3.

Table 10: Hourly Climatological Data at Lubbock, TX - November 1957[68]

The hourly data-sheet shows a different picture than the daily average data.  Hourly data shows that there was no rain in Lubbock during the hours of the sightings in Levelland from 10:50 PM on November 2 through 1:30 AM on November 3.  The 0.36 inches of average precipitation reported for November 3 occurred after 8 AM that day. Moreover, a visibility of 15 miles and unlimited ceiling during the hours of the sightings indicate that the sky was clear. 

Interestingly, however, is the fact that thunderstorms were reported in the vicinity of Lubbock between 2 AM and 3 AM on November 3.  This recorded fact tends to disagree with Dr. McDonald’s assertion that conditions were not present for thunderstorms.  The timing of the observed thunderstorm, however, was about half-hour to one hour after the last sighting in Levelland (~1:30 AM).  The Lubbock climatological data shows that thunderstorms were observed on November 3 but mainly from 8 AM through 8 PM. 

The Levelland Daily Precipitation data sheet indicates that Levelland had 0.21 inches of rain on average on November 2 and thunderstorms were reported on November 3[69].  Unfortunately, an hourly precipitation report for Levelland is not available and thus the time of the reported thunderstorms and rains is not known.

Summary and Conclusions on Weather

The climatological data for Lubbock does not to support the weather statements made by witnesses Newell Wright (sighting at 12:05 AM, Nov. 3) and Harold Wright (sighting at 11:35 PM, Nov. 2).  Both witnesses told the Air Force that there were heavy clouds and light rain on the early morning hours of November 3, while data shows no precipitation and unlimited ceiling for those time periods in Lubbock.  Nevertheless, the data collected was for Lubbock and the weather in Levelland could have been different.  The climatological data for Levelland did show rain on November 2 and thunderstorms on November 3, but the data was averaged daily and did not provide hourly detail.

The Lubbock Avalanche Journal wrote that it started raining just about sunrise on Sunday, November 3, which tends to agree with the precipitation data on the US Weather Bureau data-sheet.  James McDonald’s weather analysis and other eyewitness testimony (Troy Morris, Weir Clem, and A.J. Fowler) tend to agree that the sky was clear and that there was no rain during the late evening hours of November 2 and the early morning hours of November 3.  It is interesting to note that this conclusion is similar to the teletype report sent to ATIC from the Commander of Walker AFB on November 4, 1957.  The teletype report stated that there was unlimited ceiling, with visibility at 15 miles, cloudy with light drizzle, and 5/10 to 9/10 of the sky was obscured.  However, the information in this teletype was not quoted by Blue Book in its final report.

All sources of weather information lead to the conclusion that there was no thunderstorm during the time period of the Levelland sightings.  The Air Force weather report never mentioned a thunderstorm; neither did the two witnesses that the Air Force used to support the electrical storm hypothesis.  The local newspaper did not mention any thunderstorm around Lubbock during that weekend.  Moreover, the US weather station located in Lubbock did not report any thunderstorm or lightning during the relevant period.  Nevertheless, there was thunder and lighting reported in Lubbock between 2 AM and 3 AM on November 3 and thunderstorms were reported in Levelland on November 3.  This data point contradicts Dr. McDonald’s weather analysis that led him to conclude that the weather conditions in Levelland could not have produced lightning of any sort.

In conclusion, there was no severe thunderstorm in Levelland during the time period of the sightings.  There could have been a few clouds with light rain in Levelland despite no rain being reported at the Lubbock weather station.  Conditions for scattered lightning, however, cannot be discounted.  Lack of a thunderstorm does not imply lack of sporadic lightning.  There was lightning reported between 2 and 3 AM on November 3 in Lubbock.  Thus, lightning conditions did exist.   The issue of whether ball lightning could happen under clear sky conditions or only during thunderstorm conditions will be discussed below.