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From: Ted Viens <drtedv@freewwweb.com>
Date: Thu, 04 Dec 1997 12:09:47 -0800
Fwd Date: Thu, 04 Dec 1997 18:17:09 -0500
Subject: Re: NUFORC Reports on the US Northwest Mass


> Date: Wed, 3 Dec 1997 20:42:05 -0500 (EST)
> To: updates@globalserve.net
> From: edwards@amigo.net (TIM EDWARDS)
> Subject: NUFORC reports on the Northwest mass sightings

> Dozens upon dozens of reports on the Seattle and Northwestern US
> Mass sighting Nov. 14 can be found at:

> http://www.nwlink.com/~ufocntr/

> Included in the reports is a press release by Peterson Field Air
> Base, Colorado that a Soviet Rocket came down Nov. 16 NOT the
> 14. A lot of these reports are very derogatory to the official
> explanation of space-debris re-entering.

> Check it out.

> Tim


Hmmm...  going to the Orbital Information Group website:

http://oigsysop.atsc.allied.com/sat.htm

and downloading the weekly satellite report (satwk.html) a couple
of weeks after the sighting and what do we learn:

Objects NO Longer In Orbit:

Internatl.                   Catalog Object Launch      Decay
Designation  Name            Number  Source Date        Date

1987-079L    SL-12 DEB       25022   CIS    16 Sep 1987 30 Oct 1997
1994-029AM   PEGASUS DEB     23991   US     19 May 1994 06 Nov 1997
1986-017LR   MIR DEB         23929   CIS    19 Feb 1986 08 Nov 1997
1986-017JN   MIR DEB         23691   CIS    19 Feb 1986 12 Nov 1997
1997-070B    SL-12 PLAT      25046   CIS    12 Nov 1997 13 Nov 1997
1994-029JL   PEGASUS DEB     24185   US     19 May 1994 14 Nov 1997
1997-070C    SL-12 R/B(1)    25047   CIS    12 Nov 1997 15 Nov 1997
1997-060C    FOTON 12 DEB    25015   CIS    09 Oct 1997 17 Nov 1997
1997-011B    ATLAS 2A CENTAU 24749   US     08 Mar 1997 19 Nov 1997

Why look!!!  A big ole Russian SL-12 Rocket Booster decayed on 15
Nov 1997.  "Wait!!!" you say, "Them supernatural lights came
streaking from the sky after 9:00 pm Friday -14- Nov 1997 Seattle
time!"  Right, they were sighted after 5:00 am Saturday -15- Nov
1997 Universal Coordinated Time (UTC).  Well Hot Damn!!  The most
respected non-military source of satellite information in the
world and the actual events agree.

Also from the above brief list we learn that the booster was
launched three days before decay.  This tells us it decayed from
orbit.  The burning re-entry would be seen below its path over a
third of the way around the world.  It would have been most
spectacular just before crashing to earth which appeared to be
somewhere in the northwestern United States.  It probably would
have broken into several pieces and the densest ones would have
lead a string of flimsier pieces across the sky. Sheet-like
pieces would have diverted some from the path of the bulk of the
booster.

A brief (hopefully) description of how NORAD really tracks low
earth orbit satellites.  Really big, big radars all over the
earth sweep the skies flapping back and forth zapping everything
just like in the movies...  BBBRRRAAAPPPPP, NOT...  Sorry, wrong
answer.  Take a paper plate and cut it in half.  Get your globe
(ok, pretend) and tape one of the halves sort of up and down
centered over Texas.  See how this semi-circle pattern stays
fixed in place.  Glue a marble to a string and spin it around the
globe.  See how it passes through the semi-circle once each
orbit.  Now, tape two more half plates to the globe so that they
form a triangle over the central U. S.  Take your marble and spin
it around the globe in any orientation you can imagine.  See how
it passes through at least a couple of the radar fans during each
orbit.  NORAD takes all the vectors of all the hits by these
three radars and sorts them out to compute the orbital paths of
all the objects they can detect. If an object decays and they are
not paying particular attention to it, they may take 3 to 6 hours
to notice it.  True, NORAD knows in advance what objects are
about to decay, but they don't know that it has actually decayed
until it fails to trip the radar fence on its next pass and
someone cares enough to inquire.  (Phewww, brief enough.)

In fact, the Orbital Information Group at the above page provides
a sixty day decay forcast.  (60da.html)  If you look today, you
will see that the list only forecasts decays through December 31
and that all decays are listed as expected on December 31.  Even
in the temples of technology, they screw up occasionally and
software has bugs.

I am tempted to ramble on for another couple of pages to explain
why, for the next couple of years, decaying space debris will
begin to feel like a constant rain of fire falling from the sky.
Fortunately, I am restraining myself.  I will give a clue though:
 Personal Sat-Phones.

Bye...  Ted..