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From: Jan Aldrich <jan@CYBERZONE.NET>
Date: Wed, 29 Jan 1997 15:44:17 -0800
Fwd Date: Sat, 01 Feb 1997 11:30:53 -0500
Subject: Project 1947 - 'Ghost of the Estimate'

This is for Mike Hall, but I would like to share it with everyone.

The Top Secret document "Analysis of Flying Ojbect Incidents in the
United States", Study #203, 10 December 1948 by the USAF Directorate of
Intelligence (DI) and the Office of Naval Intelligence is offen called
"The Ghost of the Estimate" or a watered version of the ATIC Estimate of
the Situation (EOTS).  This misnomer is completely wrong.  The two
documents, if the EOTS exists at all, probably have no connection.

An Estimate of the Situation is just as the name implies: what
intelligence personnel think the current situation is.  EOTS is a common
document or section of a staff or command documents or policies.  Staff
intelligence is supposed to be able to give the commander and his staff
an assessment of the situation at all times.  Ten minutes after an EOTS
is prepared it may made superceded and made useless by new information.

The Directorate of USAF Intelligence is superior to ATIC.  Their views
take precedence.  Therefore, the EOTS was not accepted. It was not accept
due to the fact that the "Analysis" document was issued jointly by the
USAF DI/ONI.  The fact the "Analysis" was issued after the ATIC EOTS
shows that the higher staff organization did not consider the conclusion
of the ATIC EOTS valid.  The EOTS is superceded by the "Analysis."

At the time it was common for both organizations to cooperate in aviation
intelligence matters and there are a number of DI/ONI joint studies.

In January 1948, the Navy sent the USAF a letter which stated the Navy
desired to assist in the analysis of UFOs.  DI using the Navy's letter as
a supporting document then directed Project Sign to make copies of all
their material and sent it to ONI.  No doubt this is the origin of the
joint study.

It would be interesting to see the notes and material that went into this
study.

More later.


Best regards,

Jan Aldrich