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From: Jan Aldrich <jan@CYBERZONE.NET>
Date: Fri, 31 Jan 1997 11:05:25 -0800
Fwd Date: Sat, 01 Feb 1997 11:35:11 -0500
Subject: Project 1947 - 'Ghost of the Estimate' III

This posting should really be titled "Analysis of Flying Object Incidents
in the United State."  With the release of the Project Sign documents and
other documents from HQ, USAF Intelligence many events at this time
become clearer.

The printed copy of the Top Secret study (Top Secret control # 2-7341)
the title page reads: "Air Intelligence Report No. 100-203-79, ANALYSIS
OF FLYING OBJECT INCIDENTS IN THE U. S., Air Intelligence Division Study
No. 203, 10 December 1948, Directorate of Intelligence and Office of
Naval Intelligence." The distriution was "C."   There are lists prepared
to tell the clerks where to send the documents this one used the "C"
list.  It is interesting to note that although this was a join Air
Force-Navy document the warning statement cited Army Regulation 380-5,
the security and classification regulation.  The surviving document is
copy 102 or 103 copies produced.

    The document has the following attachments a Memo for Record by Maj.
Dewey Fournet, a Top Secret "loan sheet," another two Memo Routing Slip
concern the same subject as in the draft, an Air Force HQ form 6,
Register of Personnel Handling Top Secret Material" which records all
personnel handling this document since 5 Dec 1950.  Fournet's Memo reads:

                                            AFOIN-2B3
                                            Capt Fournet/el/55894
                                            Wrtn 5 Jun 52

                 MEMORANDUM FOR RECORD

PROBLEM

    1.  To declassify Study 100-203-79, "Analysis of Flying Object
Incidents" dated 10 December 1948, if practicable.

FACTS AND DISCUSSION

    2.  In accordance with a request from Col. W. A. Adams, AFOIN-2B,
to declassify Study 100-203-79 if practicable, the following information
is submitted.  A search through D/I files was made, but no such study was
found.  However, a draft study bearing the same time and date, plus the
designation "D/I-ONI Study No. 203" was located.  This study is
classified Top Secret and is presumed to be the study in question.

    3.  Two copies of the latter study were distributed to ONI.

    4.  Subject matter will not be submitted for inclusion in the Daily
Staff Digest.

CONCLUSIONS

    5.  It is not considered advisable to declassify Study No. 203
inasmuch as it contain such speculation on the possible origin of
unidentified flying objects, information on the Soviet AOB and atomic
energy activity.  In addition, the study contains a treatise on possible
Soviet intentions in utilizing controlled aerial missiles over the U. S.

ACTION RECOMMENDED

   6.  None; for information only.

COORDINATION

       Col J. G. Eriksen - AFOIN-2B3 - Ext. 52466
       CAPT. R. C. Bauer, USN - AFOIN-2B - Ext. 55909
       Col. E. H. Porter - AFOIN-2 - Ext. 71110

The Memo was classified Confidential and declassified 5 March 1985.

COMMENTS:  Apparently when looking through the files Fournet came upon
the draft first.  Later this Memo was filed with the printed copy.
Ruppelt said that both Col. Adams and Maj. Fournet were "believers."  You
don't find that in this official statement.

The Top Secret Loan Sheet indicates that the document was due back on 8
July 1952

The first Memo Routing Slip has the following hand written message:

    "All extra copies of this document were ordered to be destroyed.

    "Cy being kept for record purposes only.  Not to be disseminated
without permission of AFOIN-A.

         "see 2-6167"

          It is signed by the same person as the draft the last name now
looks like Buedolf. and it is dated 6 Dec 51.

The second Memo Routing Slip also hand written reads:

          "T. S. Control Note:

    "All published copies of this document have been ordered destroyed.
This document for frecor purpose only not to be disseminated."

       On the memo is there are intitials in the same hand writing as the
other instruction memos.

On the AF HQ Form 6, the Top Secret Register, there are 10 entries from
5 Dec 1950 to 24 Jun 1952.  Except for Maj Fournet's entry all concern
the administrative handling of the document.

The Study has been available since 1985 and has been sold by several
organizations and individuals.  We are attempting to have this placed on
a web site.

More later.

Jan Aldrich