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From: Jim Deardorff <deardorj@ucs.orst.edu>
Date: Sat, 20 Sep 1997 10:33:52 -0700 (PDT)
Fwd Date: Sun, 21 Sep 1997 08:27:06 -0400
Subject: Re: More Military Jet Crashes

> To: UFO UpDates - Toronto <updates@globalserve.net>
> From: xalium@netwrx.net (Tom King)
> Subject: More military jet crashes.
> Date: Fri, 19 Sep 1997 17:29:11 EST

> I just saw some breaking news that a B-1 bomber has crashed. They didn't
> have many details to offer yet.

> Does anyone have a total of how many military jets have crashed in the last
> 2 weeks?

I had said:
"The news this morning mentions that there had been 6 crashes in the past
one week.  The latest one follows just one or two days after all military
flights were suspended for a day in order that persons involved could
ponder the situation.

"Is there a mathematician here who could calculate the odds that this is
due to "chance," given a reasonable figure for the average number of
such crashes per year?"

I read today that the U.S. moratorium on military training flights hasn't
yet taken place, but will do so on Monday.

And it turns out it doesn't take a real mathematician or statistician to
calculate the odds of this having occurred due to random chance.  I don't
know how many crashes per year we typically have.  Let's say it's 36.5
crashes, to make the arithmetic simpler.  Then the odds of a crash
occurring on any one day of the year is 0.1, or 36.5/365.  So if you had 6
crashes on successive days, the odds for that would be 0.1x0.1x0.1x0.1x0.1
= 1/100,000.  (One doesn't count the first crash, which initiated the
string.)

The odds of not having a crash on any one day is 0.9.  So if you had 6
crashes in 7 days, with no crash on the 4th day, say, the odds for that
would be nearly the same: 0.1x0.1x0.9x0.1x0.1x0.1, or 1 in 90,000.  These
are pretty slim odds, though you'd expect it to happen one time in about
247 years (247 being 90,000/365).  This is rare enough to make one suspect
some sort of sabotage.  But I don't know if the 36 crashes per year
figure is in the right ballpark or not.

Jim Deardorff