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From: Jan Aldrich <jan@cyberzone.net>
Date: Sun, 01 Nov 1998 14:08:10 -0800
Fwd Date: Tue, 03 Nov 1998 00:16:35 -0500
Subject: EToS, The Analysis & Ghosts


The Top Secret Estimate of the Situation from the Intelligence
Division at Air Materiel Command and the "Analysis of Flying
Object Incidents over the United States,"  (Official:  "Air
Intelligence Report No. 100-203-79, ANALYSIS OF FLYING OBJECT
INCIDENTS IN THE U. S., Air Intelligence Division Study No. 203,
10 December 1948, Directorate of Intelligence and Office of
Naval Intelligence.") are once again the subject debate.  Once
again the old chestnuts that the "Analysis" is either a watered
down version of the EToS or that it is the "Ghost" of the
"Estimate" have been revived.

(See the "Analysis" at:)

http://www.iufog.org/project1947/fig/1948air.htm


In the "Ghost of the Estimate" article on the Project 1947
website these ideas are demonstrated to be wrong:

http://www.iufog.org/project1947/fig/1948back.htm

Not mentioned in the article is the fact that General (then MG)
Charles Cabell, USAF Director of Intellignece on 27 July 1948,
tasked his DI staff to start a study of flying saucers.  This,
of course, is earlier than the 8 August 1948 memo on the subject
and about the same time that Ruppelt said that the EToS was
initiated at the Intelligence Division of AMC at Wright Field.
MG Cabell's tasking included the instruction that the study
should start with the idea that UFOs were real.  As he stated in
his memoirs, "I reminded our people that their jobs were to
prove that the 'Flying Saucers' *did* exist, because the
alternative method, that of proving something does not exist,
approaches the impossible."

Dr. Michael Swords in draft article for the next Journal of UFO
Studies considers the EToS.  In the article Swords analyzes some
of the factions at the Directorate of Intelligence at the
T-2/Intellitence Division/ATIC.  Information on the author of
the EToS is contained in the article.  It is important to point
out that the EToS author left ATIC in February 1951 before
Ruppelt was assigned to Project Blue Book. The understanding
thinking of the personnel involved with the Project
Sign/Grudge/Blue Book is important although it is not one of my
research topics.

Two people who have done considerable research in this area are
Wendy Connors who started the Project Sign Research Center

http://www.evansville.net/~slk/Sign.html

and Michael Hall who started the Project Blue Book Research
Center

http://www.evansville.net/~slk/Blue.html

together they are completing a book on the author of EToS which
should be finished shortly.

Wendy is also in the final stages of a book on Project Sign.

The EToS was authored by an authority on "low aspect ratio
aircraft" (flying wing and circular aircraft).  He was
investigating UFOs from the very beginning prior to the
formation of Project Sign.

There are no back up documents concerning the EToS which have
come to light, however, Ruppelt referring to the progress of the
document must have had some or was depending on interviews he
did of Project Sign personnel.

Not all Project Sign personnel were familar with the EToS as
Wendy's research will show.

Former AF Major Dewey Fournet asked by Barry Greenwood if the
Analysis could have been mistaken for the EToS stated that they
were two different documents.  Fournet claims to have read the
EToS.  Fournet stated elsewhere that he was not particularly
impressed the EToS, and thought it should have indeed been
rejected as the evidence did not fit the conclusion.

The Analysis discussed the possibility of the secret aircraft
either US or Soviet.  This area was explored several time by
both AMC and the Directorate of Intellignece.  In 1947, General
LeMay said there were no AAF projects that could give rise to
flying saucers.  Col McCoy in 1948 requested that the Army, Navy
and CIA be questioned about the possibility that some agency in
the US was conducting experiments which would give raise to UFO
reports. The Horton Brothers were questioned and the possibility
that Horton aircraft were involved was investigated.

By the time the Analysis was printed in April 1949, the secret
aircraft theory was pretty well abandoned, however documents as
late as 1955 still considered such a Soviet development a
possibility.  The 1949 abandonment of this idea is shown in the
USAF Director of Intelligence Top Secret briefing for the Joint
Intelligence Committee (JIC) even though the purpose of the
briefing was to inform the intelligence community about the
recently printedd Analysis and current thinking on UFOs up to
that time.

http://www.iufog.org/project1947/fig/49docdex.htm

[In my article concerning the JIC briefing there is this
sentence:

"Shallet's article was his own, but probably endorsed by Mr.
Leo.  The Project Saucer press release was less negative than
Purdy pointed out to Keyhoe."

It should read:  "Shallet's article was his own, but probably
endorsed by Mr. Leo. The Project Saucer press release was less
negative than Shallet's article as Purdy pointed out to Keyhoe."

Since the JIC article was written, an 1949 interview by the Air
Force TIMES of Project Grudge personnel during this time frame
has been found.]

Recently, there have been a few of pieces on post-WW II secret
aircraft as UFO explanations.  The old chestnuts about the
"flying flapjack" and the Horton aircraft have again been
dragged out.  The evidence offered is very slim.  I had tried to
encourage one of these articles as it would be useful for
aviation authorites to become interested and research this
issue.  Certainly interesting documents might result from such
research.  Unfortunately that has not been the case.  We only
seem to have "believer legends" pitted against "skeptical
legends" and damned little research from either side.  Those
doing actual research are few in number and doing it on a
shoestring.

(Note:  Along the skeptical legend line, a recent interview with
an authority on early manned ballooning has the Skyhook balloon
program as the origin of UFOs.)

As far as the claim that all the documents from this early UFO
era being available, that is completely false; many documents
among the released collections were withheld by various
agencies.  There are many agencies that have released little or
no material from the early UFO era.

[To give credit were credit is due and deserved:

Dr. Bruce Maccabee has priority for the discovery of the draft
and printed copies of the "Analysis" which he labeled as the
"Ghost of the Estimate."

Robert Todd's FOIA campaign which lasted over one year secured
the declassification and release of the Directorate of
Intelligence "Flying Disc" decimal correspondence files in 1985
which also contained a partial copy of the "Analysis" later
presented in the July 1985 MUFON Journal and used in Loren
Gross' "UFOs History: 1948."  Todd's efforts also resulted in
the declassification and release of the Top Secret file
concerning the tasking and progress of the "Analysis."  The
recently released Project Sign and Project Grudge investigative
files 1948-9 were also found as the results of his efforts.

Recently research has brought to light the JIC Top Secret
briefing and the Daily Activity of Reports of the AAF AC/S
Intelligence and USAF Director of Intelligence files for
1947-1948.]

--
Jan Aldrich
Project 1947
http://www.iufog.org/project1947/
P. O. Box 391, Canterbury, CT 06331, USA
Telephone: (860) 546-9135