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From: Bruce Maccabee <brumac@compuserve.com>
Date: Fri, 30 Oct 1998 13:26:14 -0500
Fwd Date: Sat, 31 Oct 1998 05:09:36 -0500
Subject: Re: Failure Of The 'Science' Of Obergian Debunking


>From: David Rudiak <DRudiak@aol.com>
>Date: Thu, 29 Oct 1998 12:14:26 EST
>To: updates@globalserve.net
>Subject: Re: Failure Of The 'Science' Of Obergian Debunking

>From: Keith Stevens <keith.stevens@virgin.net>
>Date: Wed, 28 Oct 1998 19:42:29 +0000
>Fwd Date: Wed, 28 Oct 1998 15:28:15 -0500
>Subject: Re: Failure Of The 'Science' Of Obergian Debunking

>>Date: Thu, 22 Oct 1998 01:28:45 -0400
>>From: Gary Alevy <galevy@pipeline.com>
>>To: UFO UpDates - Toronto <updates@globalserve.net>
>>Subject: Re: Failure Of The 'Science' Of Obergian Debunking.

<snip>

>>>There is a pivotal document in the history of the UFO that has
>>>yet to see the light of day over fifty years later. This is true
>>>despite the creation of the Freedom of Information Act and
>>>recent promises of de-classification. The Estimate of the
>>>Situation, created by Project Sign was first revealed to the
>>>public by Captain Ruppelt in The Report. The Estimate was
>>>considered by its creators at ATIC to contain "proof positive"
>>>of the reality of the UFO and that they were interplanetary!
>>>Ruppelt discusses the peculiar fate of this estimate, after
>>>noting that it was not accepted by the Chief of Staff of the Air
>>>Force, General Hoyt Vandenberg. Ruppelt states:>


>There was a another Top Secret UFO document very similar to the
>Estimate and written just a few months afterwards that suffered
>exactly the same fate described by Ruppelt. We know this because
>the declassification order, destruct order, and a copy of the
>document have survived, were "declassified" in 1985, and can be
>seen in Clifford Stone's book "UFOs Are Real." This was "Air
>Intelligence Report No. 100-203-79," or "Analysis of Flying
>Object Incidents in the U.S.", dated 10 Dec 1948, henceforth to
>be called the "Analysis." You can also see a copy of the
>Analysis on the Project 1947 Web site.

>The initial document relating to declassification and
>destruction was dated 11 Aug 1950, and interestingly, the
>original request seems to have come from the Commanding General
>of Alaskan Air Command, namely Gen. Nathan Twining.  (I leave it
>to the skeptics to explain why Twining would be involved with
t>his at all, since it is the claim of some that being CG of
>Alaskan Command would have totally taken him out of any UFO high
>secrecy loop.) The documents states, "Subject document, for
>which your Command requests downgrading action, contains info
>and speculation on the 'flying saucer' situation which have
>never been released or intimated publicly by the Air Force.">

>In Plainspeak, the Air Force didn't want the public to know
>about this. The Analysis came to the conclusion that UFOs were
>real machines, but unlike the Estimate that just preceded it and
>was rejected at the top, stopped short of calling them ET.

>This was followed on 25 Sept 1950 by an official request for
>destruction. "It is requested that action be taken to destroy
>all copies of Top Secret Air Intelligence Report Number
>100-203-79 ....">

>Then this was followed on 6 Dec 1951 by the following memo: "
>All extra copes of this document were ordered to be destroyed.
>Copy being kept for record purposes only. Not to be disseminated
>without permission of AFOIN-A.">

>So first the document was "downgraded," then all copies were
>ordered destroyed. Yet a year later, it was noted that one copy
>was being kept for historical records, but even this downgraded
>copy could not be disseminated. (The Air Force still didn't want
>the public to know even after it had been downgraded.) And
>oddly, even after being supposedly "downgraded" in 1950, this
>document was still stamped "Top Secret" when it was finally
>fully declassified and made public in 1985 under FOIA. In short,
>it sounds exactly like Ruppelt's description of the fate of the
>Estimate, except nobody knows if the Estimate still exists.>

<snip>

>>I feel once a document had been down graded to none
>>status(declassified) then any one,regardless of any
>>Official/National Secrets Act would have been free to
>>discuss/publish any information that it contained.

>Ruppelt did discuss the contents publicly in his 1956 book.
>Others, such as Dewey Fournet, have also publicly stated that
>they read the document while they were affiliated with Blue
>Book, and further that it came to an ET conclusion..

>>I find it very hard to believe that anyone would admit to
>>having a copy of this particular document and not be prepared
>>to show it.

>Ruppelt and others didn't admit to having a copy in their
>personal possession. They said they read a surviving copy. This
>>"Analysis" which was kept in an intelligence archive, but which
>could "not be disseminated without permission."

>>After all unauthorized possession of a classified document is
>>an 'Offence against the State' to admit to owning one is an
>>admission of guilt. In this particular case of course the
>>document is allegedly 'Unclassified' so one would be free from
>>any form prosecution,so why not come clean?What is there to
>> lose?Publish and be damned as some one famous once said.

>I think you misunderstand. Insiders like Ruppelt and Dewey
>Fournet did publicly state that the conclusion of Project Sign's
>Estimate was that the saucers were extraterrestrial. Ruppelt
>went into some detail. But nobody every claimed to "owning" a
>copy.

>>I cannot help but feel that either this document never existed
>>or,my personal choice,it was totally destroyed.

>>I hope I am wrong on both counts.

>If the fate of the Top Secret "Analysis" is any guide, there may
>yet be a surviving copy of the "Estimate." Correct me if I am
>wrong, but isn't it common for one copy to be retained for the
>historical record, as was the case for the "Analysis?">

About 14 years ago I held in my hot sweaty little grubby
fingers a legal sized (8.5 by 14 inch) document,  typed,
double-spaced, original , with a TOP SECRET stamp across the to
and bottom which was enclosed in a black, stiff cover. According
to Ruppelt the Estimate....

   ".... was a rather thick document with a black cover and it
was printed on legal sized paper. Stamped across the front were
the words TOP SECRET."

There have been few people who have held this document in their
hands.  It is only available in the National Archives.....and
this was back in the days when they actually let a researcher
have access to the originals!

Was I holding the .................(gulp) ESTIMATE?

Lest your eyes pop out and you heart skip 17 beats, let me rush
to advise, sadly, NO!

At best it was the "Ghost of the Estimate"...... the watered
down version described by Rudiak and others on this list. This
was the original Study #203 with TOP SECRET CONTROL #  2 6167.
The discribution list showed copies 1 and 3  for Air
Intelligence Requirements Division, copy 4 fr the Air Estimates
Branch of AF intel at the Pentagon(?), and copy 5 for Air Intel
Division. copy 2 for ONI (Office of Naval Intelligence).

The date on the document is 10 DEC 1948.

There also is a green, soft paper cover copy which was the
published version. According to that, 103 copies were published.
Copy 102 was in the archives collection. Inside the black folder
version is a memo slip of paper which says "All extra copies of
this document were ordered to be destroyed. Copy being kept for
record purposes only.  Not to be disseminated without permission
of AFOIN-A.  See 2-7341.  Mandolfi, 6DEC51.

Along with copy 102 was an accession list....names of people who
had accessed the document.  "Register of Personnel Handling Top
Secret Material" dated, 5 DEC 1950 (oddly enough only 3 days
before the Counter Intelligence Corps went on "immediately high
alert" for all information related to flying saucers, according
to a document found in the FBI file.  It is a historical fact
that the US military went on high alert for an hour or so
December 6, 1950  as a result of a "radar scare" that has still
not been explained. See my manuscript, THE FBI/UFO CONNECTION.)
There are 10 names listed.  8 handled it for recording purposes
only.  Two actually read it! One was a man named Ralph R.
Gnaucher or Grarcher or something like that (tough to read). who
accessed the document on 5 DEC 50. Never heard of him. The other
is a familiar name....... (no, not Ruppelt)

Dewey Fournet accessed the document on 6JUNE 1952, just the 1952
flap was getting into full swing!!!  There is no indication that
anyone handled the document after 24 JUN 1952 (;last time it was
catalogued or recorded).

With the two copies of Study 203 there is also a letter from
Fournet responding to a Colonel W.A. Adams. Apparently Adams
AFOIN-2B had recommended declassifying Intelligence Study
#100-203-79. Fournet wrote on 6June1952 that he had searched
Director of Intelligence files for a study by that name and had
found a draft and copy  a report entitled "D/I -ONI Study No.
203."  He assumed this was the study in question.  Fournet
wrote" It is not considered advisable to declassify Study 203
inasmuch as it contains much speculation on the possible origin
of unidentified flying objects, information on Soviet AOB and
atomic energy installations and some information on U.S research
and development activitiy. In addition it contains a treatise on
Soviet intentions in utilizing controlled aerial missiles over
the US."

Apparently the AF took Fournet's suggestion not to declassify.
This document was not declassified until 5 MAR 1985.

This "Ghost Of The Estimate" confirms one thing about Ruppelt's
description of The Estimate:  his claim of the format of
presentation was "right on"  (black stiff folder, legal size
paper). Unfortunately it does not confirm th key contents.

I noticed an interesting thing about this document, however
(aside from having excellent prints, likely  made from the
original negatives of the Phoenix "Rhodes" photos as part of the
evidence contained therein). The map of sightings vs location
started ended was dated "sightings as of Aug. 1, 1948."  Yet the
report itself includes reports as late as 18 Nov. 1948.
According to the statistics in Project Blue Book Special REport
#14, there were about 70 reports between 1 AUG and 18 Nov.  So
why not include them? SPECULATION: the map was prepared for an
earlier report which was never published... perhaps for use in
The Estimate?..... and was then incorporated into the GHOST with
ou any modifcations.

Anyway, this Air Intel Study says in so many ways.... flying
saucers are real.... and then suggests, rather weakly I would
say, that perhaps they are Soviet developmental A/C flyijng over
the US. (Note: from the AF intelligence files we know that the
Air FOrce REJECTED the idea that the Soviets would fly
experimental A/C over the USA, just as we would not sdo such a
stupid thing over the Soviet Union. Hence you may imagine the
writers of the Study 203 finding thei own explanation difficult
to swallow!)