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From: Nick Balaskas <nikolaos@YorkU.CA>
Date: Sat, 10 Jul 1999 19:56:01 -0400 (Eastern Daylight Time)
Fwd Date: Tue, 13 Jul 1999 10:26:59 -0400
Subject: Contrails On The Increase


Hi everyone.

A totally clear blue sky free from contrails is becoming a rare
sight (see article below).  At least there is the promise of
more summer-like days for us in Canada.  The increased number of
woven contrail patterns in the skies will continue to fascinate
sky watchers but may annoy film makers/videographers (like
Errol?) in Hollywood North working on projects with old themes.

Nick Balaskas


PHYSICS NEWS UPDATE
The American Institute of Physics Bulletin of Physics News
Number 438  July 9, 1999

<snip>

AIRLINER CONTRAILS, the thin line-shaped ice clouds formed from
water vapor in exhaust gases, account for about 0.1% of the
worldwide cloud cover, and as much as 0.5-2% over parts of
Europe and the Eastern Northern Atlantic.

A group of atmospheric scientists (Patrick Minnis, NASA Langley
Research Center, p.minnis@larc.nasa.gov) have made of a study of
these clouds in order to forecast their possible future
radiative forcing effect, that is, the amount by which contrails
would enhance (through greenhouse action) the solar and
earth-emitted infrared radiation retained on Earth.

The conclusion: between 1992 and 2050 contrail cloud cover will
increase by a factor of 6.

During this period the contrail fraction of anthropogenic
radiative forcing may increase from about 1% (1992) to 2 or 3%.

These are global estimates; regional averages (such as for the
northern temperate zone) will be greater still.  (Minnis et al.,
Geophysical Research Letters, 1 July 1999.)