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From: Sean Jones <tedric@tedric.demon.co.uk>
Date: Wed, 14 Jul 1999 19:21:48 +0100
Fwd Date: Wed, 14 Jul 1999 16:13:11 -0400
Subject: Faulty Numbers


Hi Errol, Hi All

It has often been quoted that out of all the UFO sightings
reported that some ninety five percent can be explained one way
or another.[1] It has also been suggested that only some ten
percent of actual UFO sightings ever get reported. Is this
because the sightee fears ridicule or whatever, I don't know.

_IF_ and that's a BIG if, we have five hundred sightings
reported each year that cannot be readily explained
(world-wide), that would mean that we have a nine thousand five
hundred sightings that can be explained. (Follow the logic here)
That would also mean that we have one hundred thousand odd of
actual sightings happening each year, right?

Being that there are only 525,600 minutes in a calendar year
does this mean that the good people of earth are seeing
Unidentified Flying Objects at a rate of one every five and a
half minutes world-wide?

Some have also suggested _millions_ of Americans are being
abducted each year too.[2] That would be three or four every
minute of the day, every day of the year, and that's not
counting the non-American abductees either!

(On a side issue, if millions of Americans _are_ being abducted
then they are mighty busy little greys - or whatever.)

Getting my drift? No? Well its simple. Statistics can say
whatever you want them to say. My personal feelings are that the
figure of _real_ UFO's (or alien space craft) is less than ONE
percent! And that is of the amount of UFOs unexplained!

I would love to point out, much to the annoyance of the likes of
Andy Roberts, that no matter how many cases his (or her) hard
work and research explain I still _believe_ in aliens and in
"flying saucers".

Whilst I am rambling, many hundreds of _genuine_ unidentifieds
are seen each year [3] and many, many more are explained by hard
work and research. This  insignificant little mudball that we
call Earth, is astronomically at the back end of beyond, so if
we are getting visited at hundreds of times each year why has
there been no PUBLIC contact? Is this because _they_ are
monitoring is or is there some "Prime Directive" about
non-interference?

So this brings me to a conclusion. Yes we are being visited, but
nowhere near the quantity that _some_ would have you believe.

----- Many thanks to Mark Cashman for some of the figures and
sources that he supplied me with.

1) Project Blue Book claimed 95% IFOs, but their sample was
highly biased toward NL cases which typically yield more IFOs
than CE cases. The somewhat better Condon sample attained only
30% IFOs. It is likely that a CE only investigation would have
50% or lower IFOs.

2) The high numbers for abductions come from the Roper poll,
which most reputable researchers consider highly flawed. Indeed,
given the various potential psychological side effects if
abductions are real, it is possible that there are many fewer
abductions than even reported by the abductee population.

3) The best database of UFOs is Larry Hatch's *U* Database,
which contains 16,000 unexplained sightings, with (I believe)
most in the fifty year interval since 1947. 16,000 sightings
over 50 years implies 320 a year, or about one a day. However,
there are some days with many more and many days with none. The
1952 wave alone contains a significant percentage of all reports
ever made. See:

http://www.temporaldoorway.com/ufo/wave/index.htm

for more info.

--
    In an infinite universe infinitely anything is possible.
                       Sean Jones
 Homepage--http://www.geocities.com/Area51/Zone/1745/index.htm
            UFO page--http://www.tedric.demon.co.uk/