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From: Bob Young <YoungBob2@aol.com>
Date: Thu, 15 Jul 1999 13:24:07 EDT
Fwd Date: Thu, 15 Jul 1999 22:26:25 -0400
Subject: Re: Faulty Numbers 


>From: Sean Jones <tedric@tedric.demon.co.uk>
>Date: Wed, 14 Jul 1999 19:21:48 +0100
>Fwd Date: Wed, 14 Jul 1999 16:13:11 -0400
>Subject: Faulty Numbers

<snip>

>So this brings me to a conclusion. Yes we are being visited, but
>nowhere near the quantity that _some_ would have you believe.

<snip>

>1) Project Blue Book claimed 95% IFOs, but their sample was
>highly biased toward NL cases which typically yield more IFOs
>than CE cases. The somewhat better Condon sample attained only
>30% IFOs. It is likely that a CE only investigation would have
>50% or lower IFOs.

>2) The high numbers for abductions come from the Roper poll,
>which most reputable researchers consider highly flawed. Indeed,
>given the various potential psychological side effects if
>abductions are real, it is possible that there are many fewer
>abductions than even reported by the abductee population.

Dear Sean and List:

Don't forget the study done by J. Allen Hynek's Center for UFO
Studies after the Air Force Blue Book records became availble.
The Center's volunteers knocked the number of Air Force Unkowns
down in half.

Also don't forget the fifteen month study later done for CUFOS
by their full-time investigator, Allan Hendry (The UFO Handbook
- A Guide to Investigating, Evaluating and Reporting UFO
Sightings, Doubleday and Co., 1979).

Hendry reported, using Hynek's UFO categories:

Out of the 1307 UFO reports, only 20 made it into the ‘best’ UFO
category.

In the Nocturnal Lights group, only 14 out of 1103 reports made
it into the ‘best’ UFO category.

Out of 89 Daylight Disks, only 4 made it into the 'best' UFO
category.

No radar-visual case made it into the ‘best’ category.  Hendry
went back to look at the other radar-visual cases and found that
they were very poor.

Only 2 of 49 Close Encounters of the First Kind made it into the
‘best’ UFO category.

None of 25 Close Encounters of the Second Kind made it past
Hendry's nose into the ‘best’ UFO category.

Likewise, none of the 7 Close Encounters of the Third Kind made
it into the 'best' UFO category.

Furthermore, all of these were investigated by one person, Allan
Hendry, with carefully designed questions and standardized
interviews.  As time went on, Hendry seemed to get better at his
investigations.  By the early months of the year following the
study the total of IFOs sometimes reached 100% in some months.
Then Hynek announced that the International UFO Reporter was not
the International IFO Reporter and henceforth would not devote
much time on non mysteries.

Clear skies,
Bob Young