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From: Larry Hatch <larryhat@jps.net>
Date: Sat, 24 Jul 1999 04:07:09 -0700
Fwd Date: Sun, 25 Jul 1999 04:38:05 -0400
Subject: Re: Sheffield UFO Incident 2?


 >Date: Thu, 22 Jul 1999 22:14:34 +0000
 >From: dave bowden <dave.bowden@cableinet.co.uk>
 >To: UFO UpDates - Toronto <updates@globalserve.net>
 >Subject: Re: Sheffield UFO Incident 2?

 >>From: Stan Friedman <fsphys@brunnet.net>
 >>To: UFO UpDates - Toronto <updates@globalserve.net>
 >>Subject: Re: Sheffield UFO Incident 2?
 >>Date: Wed, 21 Jul 1999 23:18:02 -0300

 >>Some of us are very forthcoming. This has been a very strange
 >>sequence. What is this nonsense about 1% UNKNOWNS?

<snip>

Dear Dave, Stan and Roy:

For me, the percentage of unknowns is purely semantic.

Percentage of what? Of a filtered database like mine? .. or
perhaps a percentage of every night light on the internet?

My gut feeling is that a very very small percentage of raw
unfiltered UFO reports result from something truly anomalous.

A far far higher number are still technically "UFOs" in that
they are not, and probably never will be explained. I am
implying that the vast majority would indeed be mundane, ( but
not all!) if we only had the methods and means to track them all
down.


 >Roy's original question was:

 >>Could you please tell us if you personally believe at anytime
 >in the last 25yrs or perhaps beyond that there has been at
 >least one visit to this planet by any form of Extraterrestrial
 >craft?

 >That is a very good question and since there are so many
 >'ufologists' out there maybe one kind soul could answer that
 >(what I perceive to be) simple question.

 >Dave Bowden.

2) The question, whether this or that person "believes" that
genuine alien spacecraft have visited Earth in the last so many
decades, is better posed in a religious forum.

Most of us, hopefully, try to adopt a rational and scientific
method, even if we are not all scientists ourselves.

Does a true scientist "believe" in evolution, continental drift,
quark theory, superstring theory, cold fusion [ ... ] ??

NO! They assign probabilities, based on the evidence they can
muster. "Belief" is the province of those who have surrendered
their most precious and critical faculties, in return for moral,
ethical or philosophical certitude.

If I were a biologist for example, I personally would assign a
99.99% probability on the theory of evolution, and perhaps
lesser probabilities to some of the other choices above.

I think there is an 80% chance that interstellar probes ( at
least ) have visited this planet in the last half century or so.

I gotta say that I picked the 80% figure right out of the air,
halfway down a bottle of Spaten Pils from Munich (on sale at
$1.69 per 25 oz. bottle. Good stuff that.)

I think it is somewhat less likely that there were any
home-grown "aliens" aboard, and much less likely that thousands
or especially millions of humans are abducted by grey aliens
every year.

My gut assessment (or belief quotient if you must) goes up and
down with the tides, the apparent evidence, and the better
arguments on this and other lists. I am not about to climb the
mount and proclaim the "truth" because I simply do not have it.

If you want to call that a "belief", go ahead. I think its more
like assessing the horses at Bay Meadows racetrack.

Very best wishes, and no offense intended.

- Larry Hatch