From: James Easton <pulsar@compuserve.com> Date: Mon, 14 Jun 1999 21:44:13 -0400 Fwd Date: Wed, 16 Jun 1999 00:23:10 -0400 Subject: Re: Re: Kenneth Arnold Sighting Off the list, Bruce has helpfully clarified some details which have explained the full context of Arnold's letter to the Air Force. Confirmed is my contention that Arnold was in fact still searching for the missing C-46 marine transporter when his sighting occurred. It did not take place afterwards, when Arnold was en route to Yakima. I'm sure we can now conclude the debatable points as much as they ever can be. Bruce, In his report for the Air Force, Arnold wrote, in full: "I had made one sweep of this high plateau to the westward, searching all of the various ridges for this marine ship and flew to the west down and near the ridge side of the canyon where Ashford, Washington, is located. Unable to see anything that looked like the lost ship, I made a 360 degree turn to the right and above the little city of Mineral, starting again toward Rainer. I climbed back up to an altitude of about 9,200 ft. The air was so smooth that day that it was a real pleasure flying and, as most pilots do, I trimmed out my airplane in the direction of Yakima, which was almost directly east of my position and simply sat in my plane observing the sky and terrain". Ashford is to the north-east of Mineral and if he made a "360 degree turn to the right" and was "starting again toward Rainer", which is also north-east of Ashford, I'm not sure how he was also travelling in the direction of Yakima. The account in his later book is also different, making no mention of 'heading towards Yakima' and stating, "It was during this search and **while making a turn of 180 degrees over Mineral**, Washington, at approximately 9200 feet altitude" when he first noticed a 'bright flash' The direction he was actually travelling in relation to the objects is crucial and I would have to be dubious about his 'perfect' sighting conditions, as outlined in the Air Force report. That aside, whether Arnold was coming out of a 180/360 degree turn, or 'cruising' due east, he was still in 'search' mode, so what was his airspeed likely to have been? Would he be undertaking a search at close to maximum speed, in treacherous terrain, or would his airspeed be much less, giving him time to hopefully spot the missing aircraft and earn an instant ten thousand dollar fortune? Which was, after all, why he was there in the first place. Some further comments re the respective figures you had quoted: Altitude: As you may have noticed, I mentioned to Don Ledger that I had seen a reference to pelicans being known to migrate at over 14,000 feet, considerably higher than your estimate (although it maybe makes no difference). Visibility: I'm not sure if I've highlighted this before. Glider pilot Mike Havener, who wrote an article 'Soaring with Pelicans' describing his extraordinary experiences being joined in flight by these gregarious birds, was asked if he could offer an experienced opinion on this point. He replied, "Visibility depends on several factors. The one having the most effect of course is how much 'haze' or other particulate matter is in the air (i.e. smog, smoke). At low altitudes, visibility is lowered because of this. Myself, (a pilot with average eyesight) I can distinguish the basic shape (a body with wings) of these pelicans from about 4 miles when flying above the haze. From 4 to maybe 6 miles they become small dots. Beyond that, I'd say they would probably not be distinguishable other than some sort of relative motion that may catch your eye". Presumably we keep in mind that Arnold noted how perfect the visibility was that day. Speed: It might be a mistake to underestimate just how fast these birds can fly. Although awkward on the ground, with that 10 feet wingspan they are majestic in the air and I've already provided wonderful evidence from Mike Havener that a flock of pelicans were comfortably flying with him at 52 m.p.h. Mike also writes in his article that, "I reluctantly sped up to 80 m.p.h. to put some distance between us". There's maybe another factor to consider. If any formation of birds observed a larger object flying towards them, it seems reasonable that they're likely to accelerate and get out of the way, possibly reaching their top speed if necessary. So what if - and we are only considering 'what if' calculations: Arnold's airspeed was closer to 60 m.p.h. and our conceivable birds were travelling at 30 m.p.h., or some identical ratio where Arnold's speed is twice as fast - say, 80/40. Plus, the 'objects' are first sighted four miles away At 60 m.p.h., Arnold's approaching them at 1 mile per minute. After 1 minute, if said birds remained stationary, they are still three miles away. Except that they are moving towards Arnold's flight path at 5 mile per minute. At what angle though? Anyway, at some point, they theoretically pass Arnold's flight path, heading in the approximate direction of Mt Adams. They're also still heading away from Arnold and if he turns his airplane **due south**, they will continue to travel further away. Arnold will eventually make some headway towards them, however, if he has already decided these objects are much further than they truly are, there's no point in him pursuing them. So far as I can see, there's no evidence that he did. We do know that after one minute and forty seconds, he's determined they are already at Mt Adams and distant, hardly visible objects. Does this scenario allow the possibility that these were not distant 'objects' - only some 4 miles away, yet sufficiently far and moving fast enough to always be illusory against the snow covered mountains? If not, for the sake of a best/worst scenario, let's finish off the discussion by upping the bird's airspeed to 50 m.p.h. - which they can do - drop Arnold's "coming out of turn and searching" to 60 and put the 'objects', in 'perfect visibility', initially five miles away. Do you reckon it's still an untenable (if unpalatable) possibility? James. E-mail: voyager@ukonline.co.uk
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