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From: Steven J. Dunn <SDunn@logicon.com>
Date: Wed, 19 May 1999 10:02:10 -0700
Fwd Date: Thu, 20 May 1999 17:37:33 -0400
Subject: Look Sharp! Feel Sharp! Be Sharp!


Wednesday, May 19, 1999 Published at 17:16 GMT 18:16 UK

Close shave with asteroid

By BBC News Online Science Editor Dr David Whitehouse

A large asteroid could miss the Earth by only 38,000 kilometres
in 2027, according to new astronomical observations. This is an
extremely close shave - the Moon orbits 10 times further from
Earth.

The calculations suggest that an impact is not possible that
year but, in theory, the Earth's gravity could perturb the
asteroid's path, possibly leading to an impact in 2039.

The near-miss trajectory of a newly-discovered asteroid, called
1999 AN10, was announced in April. Now, the observational data
of Australian astronomer F. Zoltowski allows calculations of
just how close the asteroid may come to Earth.

Closer and closer

Astronomers at the Minor Planet Center at the US Smithsonian
Astrophysical Observatory used Zoltowski's work to work out an
estimated approach distance for AN10 of 56,500 kilometres from
Earth. The fly-by will occur on August 7, 2027.

But the closest possible distance that AN10 could come to the
Earth on that day is only 38,000km.

The calculations suggest the asteroid will not impact. But the
new calculations confirm the initial speculation that the
asteroid might approach within the Earth's sphere of
gravitational influence.

It could therefore be perturbed in such a way that it might
impact some years later.

Impossible to predict

Dr Benny Peiser of Liverpool John Moore's University in England
says that the chaotic behaviour of this asteroid makes it
practically impossible to predict all possible approaches for
more than a few decades after any close encounter.

He says the orbit will remain dangerously close to the orbit of
the Earth for about 600 years.

Astronomers stress that a collision is only one of a range of
possibilities for this kilometre-wide chunk of rock. If it did
strike, it would cause continent-wide devastation and alter the
Earth's climate.