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UFO UpDates Mailing List

From: Mac Tonnies <Alintelbot@aol.com>
Date: Sun, 14 Nov 1999 00:42:44 EST
Fwd Date: Mon, 15 Nov 1999 07:57:38 -0500
Subject: Re: The Drake Equation


Hello, list,

 >Date: Fri, 12 Nov 1999 19:36:02 -0500
 >From: Eduardo Gomez <neutrox7@yahoo.com>
 >To: UFO UpDates - Toronto <updates@globalserve.net>
 >Subject: The Drake Equation

 >When considering probability of life in another planets, the
 >Drake Equation is a good starting point, but there's one element
 >not included in it, which is the possibility that advanced
 >civilizations (let's say, only 500 years more advanced than us)
 >could be capable of colonizing many inhabited planets and moons
 >in other star systems. In time, that could easily triple any
 >previous figures resulting from applying the Drake Equation.

This is a great point, and appears to be "overlooked" by
hardcore SETI theorists because colonization implies
interstellar travel... and of course we all know that aliens
wouldn't dare actually travel, because radio is cheaper!

This is an especially detestable bit of terrestrial chauvinism,
but it's become part and parcel of the SETI paradigm.

The Drake Equation also doesn't recognize the possibility that
_some_ ET civilizations, after reaching technological maturity,
become solipsistic pleasure fanatics for which exploration/
communication become exotic, or event repellent, prospects. I
can imagine many "hopeful" civilizations lapsing into a sort of
techno-decadence...actually, I suppose this can be tossed under
Drake's "self destruction" variable, in a pinch.

The Drake Equation also fails to foresee self-replicating
machine ecologies and other various consequences of extremely
advanced AI, which is seems space-faring civilizations would
almost certainly have, in one form or another.  Possibly more
about this later...

Mac Tonnies