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Analysis, Harwinton, CT, July 15, 1995, 2:45 PM

Important Features

This case presents a number of interesting constraints which make it possible to determine the object's distance, size, flight path and altitude with some precision:

• The observation of the shadow in a tightly constrained location, which, used in conjunction with sun azimuth and elevation, can be used to project an approximate position and which can be used to work with other elevation estimates to confirm or refute specific derived distances and altitudes.

• The observation of the object when it disappeared being directly right of the vehicle at a known location. Combined with the constraints of the shadow location and the azimuth / elevation of the object as first observed, this can aid in constraining the flight path, and can be used with elevation and azimuth estimates to confirm or refute specific derived distances.

• Good elevation and azimuth estimates which can be used at least partly independently of the shadow results.

• A good angular size which can be used to determine actual size based on distance.

The first question

• Is there a flight path which allows the shadow to be cast in the reported location and which does not violate any of the other observations. If so, that can be used as the basis for additional constraints; if not, the shadow observation must be discarded and, perhaps attributed to a coincidental passing cloud.
  • Location
  • Site Photos
  • Shadow Analysis / Event Modeling
  • Observation Constraints Based On The Model

The method used to decide this is iterative. First, develop worst case limiting paths, (perpendicular to the road) based on the shadow location (assuming noon sun position) and the position of the vehicle when the object was to the direct right. Second, connect the visible endpoints of these paths, and determine if that path or one similar to it, based on sun azimuth and elevation could have cast the shadow in approximately the right location. If so, then the shadow event is viable.

The second question

• Is it plausible, given the apparent size of the object, that it was not visible to the potential witnesses at the party?

This will, in part, be based upon the same paths used to answer the first question.

The third question

• Is there a mundane explanation for this event?

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